每周报告汇总-20250529

Group 1: USD Outlook - The USD index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year, primarily influenced by tariff policies, with a peak at 109 in early 2025 and a drop below 100 in April[1][7]. - Short-term fluctuations in the USD index are expected, with limited downward space before potential Fed rate cuts, while medium to long-term pressures include ongoing US debt issues, recession risks, and de-dollarization narratives[1][7]. - Key factors suppressing the USD include the continuous evolution of US debt issues, recession risks compounded by high interest rates, and the narrative of de-dollarization[1][7]. Group 2: HK Stock Market Strategy - Following a joint statement from China and the US on May 12, the Hang Seng Index rose nearly 3%, but the upward trend did not sustain, leading to a "wait and see" market attitude[2][10]. - Southbound capital inflows continue but at a slower pace, with over HKD 16.5 billion net inflow into the banking sector, while the technology sector faced a net outflow exceeding HKD 20.5 billion[2][10]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is slightly below pre-tariff levels, indicating a gradual recovery in market sentiment[2][10]. Group 3: US Economic Outlook - The outlook for the US economy remains unclear due to fluctuating tariff policies and their impact on inflation, with a potential rise in overall inflation post-tariff implementation[3][14]. - The US federal budget deficit for the first half of 2025 has exceeded USD 1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest deficit for a half-year period in history[3][14]. - The combination of rising interest rates and upcoming debt ceiling negotiations presents significant challenges for US fiscal policy in the latter half of 2025[3][14]. Group 4: US Stock Market Outlook - Major US indices have recovered from significant declines, reflecting investor confidence in the US economic fundamentals and policy adjustments[4][17]. - The anticipated tax cuts from the "Beautiful America Act" are expected to create structural opportunities in the US stock market, particularly benefiting traditional energy and local automotive sectors[4][17]. - Despite the challenges posed by fluctuating tariff policies, the US stock market is projected to exhibit a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025[4][17]. Group 5: US Treasury Yield Trends - US long-term treasury yields have risen above 5%, with the 20-year and 30-year yields maintaining levels above 5.0% since late May[5][21]. - The increase in yields is attributed to the downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the debt ceiling, which may lead to increased treasury supply and liquidity withdrawal[5][21]. - The expectation of delayed Fed rate cuts due to inflation concerns is likely to keep treasury yields elevated for an extended period[5][21].