华金期货螺纹周报-20250529

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Rebar by Huajin Futures, dated May 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the black market declined significantly. Demand is entering the off - season and is expected to be under pressure. With high macro - environmental uncertainty and insufficient market speculation sentiment, rebar prices are expected to have further downside [3] Group 4: Supply - Mysteel's rebar production this week dropped by 5.97 tons to 225.51 tons, with electric furnace production falling by 3.49 tons and blast furnace production by 2.48 tons. The SAC steel production data shows high output levels. With good steel mill profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10] Group 5: Demand - The apparent demand for rebar remained stable this week but was weak overall. Third - quarter demand is expected to be lackluster, and as it enters the off - season, demand will be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker indicates some support from the infrastructure sector [3][15] Group 6: Inventory - Rebar's total inventory decreased slightly this week. The total inventory decreased by 23.17 tons, with mill inventory down 1.30 tons to 186.46 tons and social inventory down 21.87 tons to 394.59 tons. SAC data shows that member enterprises' steel inventories are at the average level [3][19] Group 7: Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,770 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2,850 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,889 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the May 28th billet price of 2,900 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 11 yuan/ton [24] Group 8: Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices have been falling, and spot prices have followed suit. The basis has widened. The current price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an billet is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week [3][26][27] Group 9: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore is oscillating at a high level, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio of the main contract remains low. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metals market is expected to show limited performance [33] Group 10: Statistical Bureau Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared to January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [37] Group 11: Upcoming Important Events - May 29, 20:30: US Q1 real GDP quarterly revised value - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE - May 31, 09:30: China May PMI - June 2, 22:00: US May ISM manufacturing index - June 5, 20:15: Eurozone interest rate decision [3]