不足，关注产区天气异动及美国对外关税进一步调整情况

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff reduction is expected to benefit the domestic textile and apparel export market, but the current industrial performance shows limited order growth. The suspension of Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy by the US court is conducive to the further recovery of export orders, yet the actual implementation remains to be verified. The domestic downstream market is cautious, and cotton prices may remain in a narrow range in the short term. With the off - season of demand, the driving force for a cotton price rebound is insufficient. Attention should be paid to weather changes in production areas and further adjustments to US foreign tariffs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 12,800 and 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1087 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.235 [3]. Cotton Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 13,600 - 13,800 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C13800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 200 - 250 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and willing to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 12,600 - 12,800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P12800) at a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 150 - 200 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs [3]. Market Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: In the 24/25 season, northern Xinjiang cotton has high impurity content, leading to a shortage of high - quality resources. Most of the remaining cotton is held by large ginning enterprises and traders, making the cotton basis strong. Downstream gauze mills have high operating loads and rigid restocking needs. The cancellation of the Sino - US fentanyl tariff is beneficial for export orders [5][7]. - Likely Negative Factors: The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is around 15,000 yuan/ton, and some new cotton has not been hedged. The downstream market is in the traditional off - season, and the increase in export orders due to Sino - US tariff reduction is limited. Downstream sales are slow, and subsequent orders remain uncertain, with a strong wait - and - see attitude [7]. Cotton and Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,390, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,410, up 10 (0.07%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,320, down 10 (-0.08%); Yarn 01 closed at 19,665, down 100% (unchanged value); Yarn 05 closed at 0, down 100%; Yarn 09 closed at 19,525, down 40 (-0.2%) [6][8]. Cotton and Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,258, up 16; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was - 20, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 90, up 20; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 70, down 25; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,275, up 15; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,077, down 23; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 630, unchanged [9]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 14,578, up 6 (0.04%); CCI 2227B was 12,755, up 11 (0.09%); CCI 2129B was 14,857, up 11 (0.07%); FCI Index S was 13,660, down 10 (-0.07%); FCI Index M was 13,484, down 11 (-0.08%); FCI Index L was 13,294, down 10 (-0.08%) [10].