纸浆数据日报-20250529

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The current demand for pulp is weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures Prices: On May 28, 2025, SP2601 was 5234 with a 0.35% change and -1.91% compared to the same period; SP2507 was 5326 with a 0.99% change and -1.73% compared to the same period; SP2509 was 5214 with a 0.58% change and -2.32% compared to the same period [1]. - Spot Prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6150 with a -0.81% change and -1.60% compared to the same period; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5320 with a -0.56% change and -2.39% compared to the same period; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4100 with a 0.00% change and -2.38% compared to the same period [1]. - Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs: Outer - disk quotes for Chilean Silver Star decreased by 3.90% to 740 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 11.11% to 560 dollars, and Chilean Venus decreased by 4.62% to 620 dollars. Import costs for Chilean Silver Star decreased by 3.87% to 6046 dollars, Chilean Star decreased by 11.00% to 4587 dollars, and Chilean Venus decreased by 4.57% to 5073 dollars [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - Supply: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, a -5.01% month - on - month decrease; hardwood pulp imports were 119.9 tons, an -18.44% month - on - month decrease. The pulp shipment volume to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, a 20.70% month - on - month increase. Domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed some fluctuations. The pulp port inventory on May 22, 2025, was 215.7 tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [1]. - Demand: Among the main finished paper production, the production of white cardboard increased slightly, while the production of other paper types remained stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor, and downstream paper mills made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - Inventory: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 215.7 tons, showing a destocking trend [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - Basis: On May 28, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6 with a quantile level of 0.694, and the Silver Star basis was 824 with a quantile level of 0.968 [1]. - Import Profit: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104 with a quantile level of 0.78, and the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was -487 with a quantile level of 0.2 [1]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: On the supply side, Arauco in Chile announced its May 2025 pulp outer - disk prices, and the shipment volume of coniferous and hardwood pulp to China in April 2025 had different changes. On the demand side, the implementation of price increase letters was poor, and downstream purchases were based on rigid demand. On the inventory side, the inventory showed a destocking trend [1]. - Strategy: The current pulp demand is weak, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner [1].