兴业期货日度策略-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Downward - driven commodities: Coking coal, glass, methanol [1] - Equity index: Sideways [2] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [2] - Gold and silver: Sideways to weak [2][4] - Non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, nickel): Range - bound [4] - Lithium carbonate: Sideways to weak [4][6] - Silicon energy: Downward [6] - Steel and ore (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore): Sideways to weak [6] - Coking coal and coke: Bearish [8] - Soda ash and glass: Bearish [8] - Crude oil: Sideways to weak [8] - Methanol: Downward [8][10] - Polyolefins: Downward [10] - Cotton: Sideways [10] - Rubber: Sideways to weak [10] 2. Core Views - Commodity futures: Coking coal, glass, and methanol have clear downward drivers. Hold previous short positions in JM2509 for coking coal, FG509 for glass, and MA509 for methanol due to supply - demand imbalances [1] - Equity index: The A - share market continues to trade in a narrow range with low volume. While the downside risk is controllable due to policy support, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is under pressure. Although the long - term yield trend is downward, the current directional drivers are limited, and the odds are not favorable [2] - Precious metals: Gold prices are affected by short - term factors and lack upward momentum. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [4] - Non - ferrous metals: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. Copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to trade in ranges, with supply - demand dynamics and policy factors influencing their trends [4] - Lithium carbonate: Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] - Silicon energy: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices [6] - Steel and ore: Traditional demand seasons are ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist, leading to a bearish outlook for steel and ore prices [6] - Coking coal and coke: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in downward price trends [8] - Soda ash and glass: Soda ash production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Glass demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline [8] - Crude oil: With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] - Methanol: Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] - Polyolefins: Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] - Cotton: Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] - Rubber: Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend [10] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Futures - Coking coal: Supply is in continuous surplus, and previous short positions in JM2509 should be held [1] - Glass: Pessimistic demand expectations, and previous short positions in FG509 should be held [1] - Methanol: Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and previous short positions in MA509 should be held [1] 3.2 Equity Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range, low - volume sideways trend. The red - chip defensive and technology - growth styles rotate rapidly, and funds are cautious. The downside risk is controllable, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [2] 3.3 Treasury Bonds - The bond market is in a weak sideways pattern. Although the central bank maintains loose liquidity, market concerns about redemptions are rising, and the bond market is under pressure [2] 3.4 Precious Metals - Gold prices are affected by short - term factors such as tariffs and geopolitics. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the money put options. Silver follows gold, and selling out - of - the money put options is also advisable [2][4] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Uncertainties in the macro environment and demand expectations affect prices. The supply of ore is tight, but the demand is cautious, and the market is expected to trade in a range [4] - Aluminum and alumina: The macro environment is uncertain. Alumina supply has short - and long - term differences, and prices may fluctuate. Aluminum is expected to trade sideways [4] - Nickel: The market is in an oversupply situation. Although the previous short - call option strategy can be continued, new short positions should be avoided due to policy uncertainties [4] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - Supply reduction is limited, and demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation and downward pressure on prices [4][6] 3.7 Silicon Energy - Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, putting pressure on silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the furnace - starting situation in the southwest during the wet season [6] 3.8 Steel and Ore - Rebar: The traditional demand season is ending, and supply pressure may increase. Cost reduction risks also exist. It is recommended to hold short - call options or short the 10 - contract on rebounds [6] - Hot - rolled coil: External and internal demand is weak, and cost reduction risks exist. Short positions in the 10 - contract should be held [6] - Iron ore: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and short the 01 - contract [6] 3.9 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, resulting in inventory accumulation and downward price trends [8] - Coke: Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel prices are falling, leading to a decline in production willingness and downward price trends [8] 3.10 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Production is likely to increase, and demand is lackluster. Short positions in the 09 - contract should be held, and new short positions can be taken on rebounds [8] - Glass: Demand is weak, and prices are expected to decline. Short positions in the FG509 contract should be held, and the buy - glass 01 - sell - soda ash 01 arbitrage can be continued [8] 3.11 Crude Oil - With the possibility of production increases, the medium - to - long - term oil price center is expected to shift downward [8] 3.12 Methanol - Supply is growing, and demand is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure [8][10] 3.13 Polyolefins - Futures prices have reached new lows, and with lower costs and weaker demand, short positions should be held [10] 3.14 Cotton - Weather and demand factors need to be monitored. The market is expected to trade in a range [10] 3.15 Rubber - Cost support is weakening, and supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward price trend. The short - call option strategy can be adjusted and continued [10]