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关注部分地区石油供应中断,油价上涨
Guang Jin Qi Huo·2025-05-29 13:31

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On May 28 (Wednesday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up $0.95 per barrel to $61.84 per barrel, a gain of 1.56%. The Brent July crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $0.81 per barrel to $64.9 per barrel, a gain of 1.26% [1]. - OPEC+ will hold another round of negotiations this Saturday, and may reach an agreement to further accelerate oil production increases in July. Representatives said that the 8 gradually increasing OPEC+ member countries participating on Saturday may agree to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, consistent with the increases in May and June [2]. - Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories declined last week, while distillate inventories rose. As of the week ending May 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels. Analysts previously predicted that U.S. crude oil inventories would increase by about 100,000 barrels, distillate inventories would increase by about 500,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories would decrease by about 500,000 barrels [3]. - Concerns about the risk of oil supply disruptions in parts of Canada and Libya are temporarily supporting oil prices. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season for oil, there is some upward momentum for oil prices, but the upside is limited. The upward pressure comes from uncertain tariff policies and OPEC+'s determination to increase production. In the long term, as the supply side maintains an upward trend while demand is constrained by the dim economic recovery prospects and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Movement - On May 28, WTI July crude oil spot contract rose $0.95/barrel to $61.84/barrel, up 1.56%, and Brent July crude oil spot contract rose $0.81/barrel to $64.9/barrel, up 1.26% [1]. 3.2 OPEC+ Meeting - OPEC+ will negotiate on Saturday and may agree on a 411,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July for 8 member countries, same as May and June [2]. 3.3 U.S. Inventory - As of May 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased 4.24 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased 528,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased 1.3 million barrels, different from analysts' predictions [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short - term, oil prices are supported by supply disruptions and have upward momentum in the seasonal peak, but limited by tariff policies and OPEC+ production increase. In the long - term, supply growth and demand constraints may lead to price drops [4].