格林大华期货股指月报：人民币升值利好A股-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs enhances the risk appetite of A-shares. The appreciation of the RMB attracts foreign capital inflows, and global financial asset reallocation is favorable for A-shares. The market is waiting for new positive forces to break the current large-scale horizontal consolidation situation [14][63]. - The decline in deposit rates, the large-scale issuance of free cash flow ETFs, and the appreciation of the RMB are beneficial for the value style. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs boosts risk appetite, which is conducive to the growth style. The market is expected to continue its structural trend [65]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Viewpoints - On May 12, China and the US reached an agreement to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, which is beneficial for domestic exports. As of the end of April 2025, the total net asset value of public funds was 33.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 89.85 billion yuan compared to the end of March. Since the beginning of 2025, Asian currencies and the euro have mostly appreciated by 5% - 10% against the US dollar, while the RMB has risen by less than 2% from the beginning of the year to early May. The appreciation of the RMB has attracted over 150 billion yuan in cumulative net inflows of northbound funds, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. These foreign funds prefer blue-chip stocks with stable performance and high dividend yields, strengthening the value investment style [14]. - The huge losses in Asian life insurance have exposed the systematic risks of maturity mismatches in US dollar assets. A "big retreat" of up to $7.5 trillion from US assets has just begun. Goldman Sachs strategists believe that the Chinese stock market is expected to benefit from improved corporate profit prospects and increased foreign capital inflows. On May 28, the US Trade Court suspended reciprocal tariffs, which is conducive to enhancing the risk appetite of A-shares. The major indices of the two markets are still repairing their daily technical indicators, waiting for new positive forces [14]. Trading Strategies - Futures Direction Trading: The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US Trade Court, the continuous inflow of foreign capital attracted by the RMB appreciation, and the reallocation of global financial assets are all favorable for A-shares. The market is waiting for new positive forces to break the current large-scale horizontal consolidation [15]. - Options Trading: Since the market is still in a large-scale horizontal consolidation phase, it is recommended to postpone the purchase of deep out-of-the-money call options on stock indices [15]. Macroeconomic Data - In April, China's export volume was $315.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, far exceeding expectations. The monthly value of social consumer goods retail in April was 3.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The monthly value of manufacturing fixed asset investment in April was 2.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The monthly value of infrastructure investment in April was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.6% [24][27][29]. - In April, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.4%, and the month-on-month growth rate was 0.22%. The solar power generation in April was 44.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The export volume of electric vehicles in April was 308,000 units, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 37.5%. The output of industrial robots in April was 71,500 units, a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 42% [33][35][37]. - In April, the output of integrated circuits was 41.6 billion pieces, still at a historical high. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of retail and food sales in the US was 5.2%, indicating high consumption levels. In March, the US commodity import volume was $346.7 billion, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 32.2% [41][43][45]. - In March, the US consumer goods import volume reached $103.1 billion, a new historical high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 55.9%, reflecting strong consumer demand and large-scale inventory replenishment by retailers. In March, the US intermediate goods import volume was $75.5 billion, still at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39.4%, indicating that US manufacturers are hoarding intermediate goods due to tariff issues [47][49]. - In March, the US capital goods import volume was $93 billion, a new historical high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.5%, indicating an acceleration of the return of US manufacturing and the "re - industrialization" process in the US. In March, the US merchandise trade deficit was $163.5 billion, a new historical record, with a year-on-year growth rate of 74.8% [51][54]. - In March, the number of job openings in the US was 7.19 million, and the voluntary resignation rate rose to 2.1%, indicating a tightening labor market in the US. In March, the inventory growth rates of US wholesalers and manufacturers continued the trend of active inventory replenishment [56][59]. Strategy Recommendations - Wait for positive forces to break the current horizontal consolidation situation, as the suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US Trade Court, the appreciation of the RMB attracting continuous foreign capital inflows, and the reallocation of global financial assets are all favorable for A-shares [63]. - Postpone the recommendation of far - month deep out-of-the-money call options on stock indices while the market is in the horizontal consolidation phase of a large platform, and wait for the market to break through upwards [67].