山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.81%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed flat [1] - The core logic is that in the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade - wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US trade court ruled to block Trump's global tariffs, reducing the risk - aversion sentiment. The US has completely left the top - tier AAA credit rating club, and the 20 - year new bonds have been cold. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that the Fed admits that inflation and unemployment may rise simultaneously and will face a difficult choice. US business equipment spending has recorded the largest decline in six months, and tariff uncertainties linger. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and weak [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has rebounded with fluctuations, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate weakly in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of the capital side, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF have re - increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Price Data: Comex gold main contract closed at $3312.40 per ounce, up $12.70 (0.38%) from the previous day and up $19.80 (0.60%) from last week; London gold was at $3300.85 per ounce, up $4.15 (0.13%) from the previous day and up $39.30 (1.20%) from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 764.32 yuan per gram, down 7.96 yuan (-1.03%) from the previous day and down 15.78 yuan (-2.02%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 762.49 yuan per gram, down 6.40 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and down 15.28 yuan (-1.96%) from last week [2] - Position and Inventory Data: Comex gold positions were 448,000 lots (100 ounces per lot), down 0.98% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract positions were 195,076 lots (1 kg per lot), down 2.00% from the previous day and down 12.93% from last week; Gold TD positions were 216,784 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.81% from the previous day and up 0.15% from last week; LBMA inventory was 8,536 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,207 tons, up 0.05% from last week; Shanghai Gold inventory was 17 tons, up 0.05% from last week [2] - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE members are led by CFC Futures with 29,986 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 5,365 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - Price Data: Comex silver main contract closed at $33.10 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.87%) from the previous day and down $0.16 (-0.50%) from last week; London silver was at $33.29 per ounce, up $0.38 (1.17%) from the previous day and up $0.78 (2.42%) from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8,224 yuan per kilogram, down 1 yuan (-0.01%) from the previous day and down 77 yuan (-0.93%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8,202 yuan per kilogram, down 9 yuan (-0.11%) from the previous day and down 66 yuan (-0.80%) from last week [5] - Position and Inventory Data: Comex silver positions were 141,451 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), up 2.31% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract positions were 5,183,925 lots (1 kg per lot), down 1.34% from the previous day and down 10.00% from last week; Silver TD positions were 3,389,800 lots (1 kg per lot), up 0.78% from the previous day and down 1.47% from last week; The total visible inventory was 40,715 tons, up 0.08% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week [5] - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE members are led by Guotai Junan with 45,469 lots, and the top 10 net - short positions are led by Jinrui Futures with 13,935 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $674.0008 billion, down $2.4409 billion (-0.00%) from the previous value [7] - Macroeconomic Data: M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63%, down 1.87% from the previous day and down 2.59% from last week; the US dollar index is 99.87, up 0.30% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.39, down 9.30% from the previous day and down 7.14% from last week [7] - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year is 2.30%, down 0.10 from the previous value; core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, unchanged; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.29%, down 0.39 from the previous value; core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.65%, down 0.32 from the previous value [9] - Economic Growth Data: GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate is 1.90%, down 1.00 from the previous value; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate is - 0.30%, down 2.70 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.20%, unchanged [9] - Other Data: Central bank gold reserves: China has 2,294.50 tons, up 0.22% from the previous value; the US has 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world has 36,250.15 tons, unchanged; the geopolitical risk index is 192.40, up 87.57% from the previous value; the VIX index is 18.11, down 6.21% from the previous day and down 10.70% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 293.26, down 0.51% from the previous day and down 1.02% from last week; the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1971, down 0.04% from the previous value [9][11] 3.4 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]