贵金属周报（黄金与白银）：特朗普对各国加征关税或涉及越权，美联储担忧通胀反弹而不急于降息-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed officials are cautious about cutting interest rates due to inflation risks, and the concentrated maturity of US Treasury bonds from June to July may cause a liquidity shock. However, due to the difficult - to - reduce US fiscal deficit, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Indicators - US: The scale of short - term Treasury bonds maturing in June and July is $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion respectively, which may cause a liquidity shock. The May SPGI manufacturing and service PMI were both higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has been postponed to September/December due to concerns about inflation rebound. The US Treasury's cash account balance may decrease to release liquidity, and the CBO predicts that the Treasury funds may be exhausted as early as August - September, which will make the Fed slow down the reduction of its balance sheet [2][7][11]. - Europe: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and is expected to cut interest rates in June and about twice more before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May and is expected to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [2]. - Japan: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still a possibility of further interest - rate hikes as some officials hope to raise rates to 1% in the second and third quarters [3][4]. 3.2 US Treasury Bond Market - Inflation Expectation: The implied medium - and long - term inflation expectation of US Treasury bonds has begun to decline, although the one - year and five - year consumer inflation expectations in May continue to rise [15][17]. - Yield: The medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields have begun to decline but are still at a high level. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bond yields remain stable. The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury bond yields is positive but narrowing [18][20][21][26]. - Financial Pressure Index: The US OFR financial pressure index has increased compared with last week [29][31]. 3.3 US Economic Indicators - Loan and Credit: The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks has increased, while the weekly rate of credit card and car loans has decreased [33][35]. - Retail Sales: The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales has increased, indicating that the US consumer industry remains prosperous [37][39]. - Mortgage: The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms have increased, causing the MBA mortgage application activity index to decline. The sales volume of new and existing homes in April has increased [41][43]. - Unemployment: The number of initial jobless claims is lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims is higher than expected and the previous value, indicating that the labor demand in the US job market remains strong [45][47]. 3.4 International Bond Yield and Exchange Rate - Bond Yield Difference: The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany has increased [49][51]. - Exchange Rate: The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar [52][53]. 3.5 Precious Metal Market - Gold: The volatility of the US gold ETF index has decreased. The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures price premium is in a reasonable range. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going long on the SHFE gold basis [54][57][61][66][72]. - Silver: The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has decreased. The domestic silver futures and spot price premiums are in a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for silver - related arbitrage opportunities [77][81][85]. - Precious Metal Ratio: The "gold - to - silver ratio" is far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going short on the "gold - to - silver ratio". The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" are also far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years, and corresponding arbitrage opportunities are recommended [97][99][100][102].