格林大华期货国债期货月报：宽幅震荡格局-20250529

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The China's economic growth in April showed resilience, with industrial production and exports exceeding market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption slightly fell short. The 90 - day window period from the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite, but long - term uncertainties remain. After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, there is a low probability of another such move in the short - to - medium term. The "export rush" factor will contribute to the stable growth of the Chinese economy in the second quarter. Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month. A strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - Treasury Futures Active Contract Trends: Since November 2024, the treasury futures market had a significant continuous increase until January 2025. After the central bank suspended open - market treasury bond purchases on January 10, the 30 - year variety reached a high in early February and then declined until mid - March when it rebounded. In early April, the futures prices rose due to the US tariff news, then fluctuated horizontally. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, prices slightly declined and then had narrow - range fluctuations [9]. - Treasury Bond Spot Yield Trends: Most treasury bond spot yields reached their lowest points in early January, over - reacting to the "moderately loose monetary policy." After the central bank's announcement on January 10, yields rebounded. The short - term interest rates rebounded faster than long - term ones. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.90% in mid - March, dropped rapidly in early April due to tariffs, and then stabilized. As of May 28, it was around 1.68% [12]. - Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve: On May 28, compared with the end of April, the yield curve shifted upward and steepened, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 9BP respectively [15]. 3.2. Current Analysis - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 4.26%. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.85%, manufacturing investment by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. High - tech industries and equipment purchase investment showed strong growth [20]. - Real Estate Sales: From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% [23]. - Social Consumption: In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. Categories such as household appliances and furniture had significant year - on - year increases [26][29]. - Service Industry: In April, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than March's 6.3% [32]. - Foreign Trade: In April, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2%. Exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%, to the EU by 8.27%, and decreased by 21.03% to the US. After the Sino - US joint statement on May 12, the CCFI US - West route index rebounded [35][38][41]. - Industrial Added Value: In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.2% [44]. - Industrial Profits: From January to April, large - scale industrial enterprises' operating income increased by 3.2% year - on - year, and total profits increased by 1.4%. In April, profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year [47]. - Social Financing and Credit: In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, and credit - caliber RMB loans increased by 2800 billion yuan, both lower than expected [50][53]. - Monetary Supply: At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year [56]. - Unemployment Rate: In April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [59]. - Prices: In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [62][65]. - Central Bank Policies: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting from May 15 and cut the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10BP starting from May 8. LPR and bank deposit rates were also lowered [68][74]. - Exchange Rate: From January to April, the US dollar index declined, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB dropped after a brief rise in early April. The decline of the US dollar index reduced the pressure on the RMB's depreciation against the US dollar [71]. - Interest Rate Spreads: The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond interest rate spread widened slightly in May compared to April. The 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bond interest rate spread and the 30 - year and 10 - year spread were at 0.22% on May 28 [80][86]. - Government Bond Financing: As of May 28, government bond net financing in May was 1494.8 billion yuan, maintaining a fast pace [83]. 3.3. Strategy Suggestions Considering that Chinese treasury bond yields do not have much room to rise significantly, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate widely in the next month, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [89].