高盛：石油追踪-石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）会议前油价微跌

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but discusses expectations regarding OPEC+ production decisions and market dynamics, indicating a cautious outlook on oil prices [1][4]. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have decreased week-on-week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, with expectations of a final production increase of 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July [1]. - The report highlights that OPEC+ is likely to maintain production levels flat after July due to anticipated new shale projects entering the market and economic growth deceleration [1]. - Geopolitical factors, including US-Iran nuclear talks and sanctions on Russia, have had mixed effects on oil prices [2]. - Brazil's new FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão and Norway's production exceeding expectations have contributed negatively to price outlooks [3]. - Trackable net supply has increased by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by higher production from Russia and lower demand from China [4][15]. Supply Dynamics - OPEC8+ crude and condensate exports are currently 0.4 mb/d above May 1st levels, reflecting a rise in exports coinciding with increased production quotas [14]. - Russia's liquids production nowcast has risen to 10.6 mb/d, while US Lower 48 crude production is estimated at 11.2 mb/d [15][23]. - China's oil demand has decreased by 0.1 mb/d to 16.7 mb/d, indicating a potential slowdown in consumption [15][33]. Demand Trends - Global oil demand remains resilient, with Saudi domestic oil demand increasing by 0.1 mb/d year-over-year in April [6]. - OECD Europe oil demand has edged up by 0.1 mb/d to 13.3 mb/d week-over-week, suggesting a slight recovery in consumption [15][34]. - The report notes that China’s propane imports from the US are down by 0.2 mb/d, reflecting ongoing tariff uncertainties [14][68]. Inventory and Pricing - OECD commercial stocks have increased by 7 million barrels (mb) to 2,782 mb, indicating a build in inventories [42]. - Global commercial stocks have also risen by 18 mb, reflecting a broader trend of increasing oil supplies [15][42]. - The Brent timespread has normalized, with the gap narrowing to 8 percentage points (pp) from its fair value [53]. Geopolitical and Market Positioning - Geopolitical developments, including sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela, continue to influence market dynamics [2][70]. - The long-to-short oil ratio stands at the 57th percentile, indicating a relatively balanced positioning in the market [74].