南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate remains weak, but as the price continues to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances will increase. Near holidays, the probability of short - position closing will also rise, so the recent market may fluctuate sharply. The short - term shock range is 58,000 - 63,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 23.4%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 28.6% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For companies with high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, strategies include shorting lithium carbonate futures (LC2508, sell, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) to lock in profits and cover production costs, selling call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options, sell, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 3), and buying out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buy, strategy level 2) [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For companies with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options, sell, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1 - 3), buying long - term lithium carbonate contracts (far - month lithium carbonate contracts, buy, based on procurement plan) to lock in procurement costs, and buying out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buy, based on procurement plan, strategy level 1) [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no significant increase in demand - side production scheduling. On the supply side, production has not improved significantly, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are under great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices, potentially leading to a spiral - like cycle of falling prices [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Macroeconomic policies are positive, and support for industries such as robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI may stimulate electricity demand growth [5]. - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to fall, the probability of upstream ore mines and lithium salt plants suspending production for maintenance will increase [5]. - The Sino - US game has eased, and there is an expectation of a "90 - day" export rush in the market, with an expectation of passive de - stocking [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to increase, and inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate [6]. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend [7]. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have postponed the clearance of high - cost production capacity [7]. 3.6 Futures Market Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 58,860, with a daily decrease of 1,520 (- 2.52%) and a year - on - year decrease of 44.05%. The trading volume is 386,145, with a daily decrease of 1,995 (- 0.51%) and a year - on - year increase of 308.58%. The open interest is 287,506, with a daily increase of 3,899 (1.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 72.47% [9]. 3.7 Spot Market Data - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 61,500, with a daily decrease of 500 (- 0.81%); SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 59,900, with a daily decrease of 500 (- 0.83%); SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 63,970, with a daily decrease of 250 (- 0.39%); SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 57,950, with a daily decrease of 250 (- 0.43%); battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea (SMM) is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change; battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change [11]. 3.8 Month - to - Month Spread Data - LC07 - 08: current value - 320, previous value - 260, week - on - week change - 69.81%, month - on - month change - 69.81%, year - on - year change - 84.39% [14]. - LC08 - 11: current value - 180, previous value - 100, week - on - week change - 60.87%, month - on - month change - 66.67%, year - on - year change - 86% [14]. - LC11 - 12: current value - 840, previous value - 640, week - on - week change - 69.81%, month - on - month change 2.44%, year - on - year change - 47.50% [14]. - LC12 - 03: current value - 380, previous value - 180, week - on - week change 72.73%, month - on - month change - 5.00%, year - on - year change - 52.50% [14]. 3.9 Lithium Ore and Shipping Data - Lithium mica average price (2% - 2.5%) is 1,235 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 (- 1.2%); lithium spodumene concentrate average price (6%, CIF China) is 680 dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 6 (- 0.87%); lithium spodumene 6% (fastmarkets quote) is 635 dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 (- 1.6%); lithium spodumene concentrate 6% (Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 (- 2%); Zimbabwe container quote is 34.5 dollars/ton, with no change; Zimbabwe bulk quote is 35.5 dollars/ton, with no change; Nigerian container quote is 20.5 dollars/ton, with no change; Nigerian bulk quote is 26.5 dollars/ton, with no change [25]. 3.10 Warehouse Receipt Data - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 33,884, an increase of 30 from the previous day. Among them, the number of warehouse receipts in some warehouses has changed, such as an increase of 60 in Zhongyuan Shipping Nanchang and a decrease of 30 in Zhongyuan Shipping Lingang [28][30].