Variety Views - On May 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 3363.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.20 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.37% to close at 2012.55 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1185.4 billion yuan, an increase of 175.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on May 29, closing at 3858.70, a rise of 22.46 [1] - On May 29, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1332.9 yuan, a decrease of 22.2 compared to the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 760.5 yuan, a decrease of 30.9 [1] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - For coke, the second round of price cuts has officially started. In the short term, coking coal continues to offer concessions, and coke enterprises have a weak drive to cut production. Steel mills' profitability rate continues to expand, and the inflection point of molten iron production cut may have appeared. Considering the current good profits of steel mills, the decline space of molten iron is limited, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke procurement. However, the cost support of coke has loosened, and it is difficult for coke prices to stabilize [2] - For coking coal, the sales of coking coal are not smooth, and there is a phenomenon of full warehouses. Some mines have taken production cut actions, but large-scale production cuts have not occurred yet. The profits of downstream coking enterprises are damaged, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory is poor. This week, the molten iron production has significantly declined, and the short-term demand for coking coal has weakened. The inventory pressure at the mine level is relatively large. In terms of imports, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the port remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area is piling up [2] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the global weather is conducive to production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil is conducive to accelerating the harvest speed, while the wet weather in India and Thailand is helpful for the growth of sugarcane crops. Affected by the expectation of improved global production prospects, the US sugar oscillated and declined on Wednesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot quotations, the Zhengzhou sugar contract 2509 oscillated downward on Thursday [2] - For rubber, due to the large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Thursday. The 20 rubber performed stronger than natural rubber due to the decrease in the inventory of the futures exchange. Affected by short sellers, Shanghai rubber oscillated and slightly declined at night. In the first four months of 2025, the total export volume of Thai natural rubber and mixed rubber was 1.573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, while that of Vietnam was 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% [2] Palm Oil - On May 29, palm oil continued its recent rebound, strongly surging to a high in recent weeks. The main contract P2509 closed with a positive K-line. The highest price of the day was 8198, the lowest was 8062, and the closing price was 8190, a rise of 1.41% compared to the previous day. It is expected that the palm oil production in Malaysia in May will still be at a high level. From May 1 - 25, the palm oil production in southern Malaysia increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 8.6%. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 2% month-on-month. In terms of exports, shipping agency data shows that from May 1 - 25, the export volume of palm oil increased by 7 - 11% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 9.0%. It is expected that the export of Malaysian palm oil in May will increase by about 10% month-on-month. Overall, it is expected that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of May will continue to rise, possibly around 2 million tons [3][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 29, CBOT soybean futures trended weakly. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro raised the soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/2025 season from 171.2 million tons to 172 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in May will reach 14.03 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 14.52 million tons. The Buenos Aires and Rosario Grain Exchanges said that the expected dry and cold weather in the next few days will help Argentine farmers harvest soybeans. In the domestic market, on May 28, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The main contract M2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. As the arrival volume of soybeans increases, the soybean inventory continues to rise, and the operating rate of oil mills nationwide has increased significantly. With sufficient soybean supply in the second quarter, the soybean meal inventory tends to rebound. Downstream feed enterprises have completed short-term inventory replenishment, and the short-term increase in soybean meal demand is limited. Overall, the soybean meal market is under the expectation of loose supply, and the upward space of prices is limited. Short-term focus should be on the arrival volume of soybeans [6] Live Pigs - On May 29, the live pig futures price oscillated and rebounded. The main contract 2509 closed at 13640 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.59%. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have inventory procurement needs. However, with the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumption options, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has changed. Group pig enterprises have completed their slaughter plans well, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the month has been alleviated. After the continuous decline of medium and large pigs, many large-scale pig enterprises have taken price stabilization measures, and the willingness to sell has slightly decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level and the production efficiency has improved. The market is generally in a pattern of loose supply. Short-term focus should be on the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper continued to oscillate strongly, but the fluctuation was limited. Fundamentally, the LME copper inventory decreased on a single day, and the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained at a low level. The global visible inventory is at the 25% quantile level of the same period in history, providing support for prices. However, the demand expectation is weak, and there are still macro uncertainties, making it difficult to provide more upward momentum. The narrow - range oscillation state of Shanghai copper continues [7] Iron Ore - On May 29, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a rise of 1.29% and a closing price of 707 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore in this period has declined, the arrival volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the port inventory has continued to decrease. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the molten iron production has declined for two consecutive periods at a high level. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] Asphalt - On May 29, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.51% and a closing price of 3514 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt in this period continued to decline month-on-month, and the shipment volume decreased month-on-month. With the arrival of the rainy season in the southern region, the terminal demand may be suppressed. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Asphalt shows an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13260 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on May 30, at the designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quotation was 390 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 52 lots compared to the previous trading day. The cotton planting in the United States is progressing slowly due to the drought [8] Logs - On May 29, the 2507 log contract opened at 760, with the lowest price of 756, the highest price of 769, and closed at 766, with a daily position reduction of 1036 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the resistance at 790. There is certain support at the spot end, and the futures price rebounded. On May 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has slightly increased, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the inventory procurement of downstream enterprises, and the price - holding willingness of traders [10] Steel - On May 29, rb2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3110 yuan/ton. This week, the production of rebar has slightly declined, the inventory has continued to decrease, and the apparent demand has slightly increased. The data is slightly positive. In the short term, although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week and the pre - holiday inventory procurement sentiment has increased, the real estate cycle has not yet stabilized, the physical workload of infrastructure investment is relatively lagging, and affected by the rainy season in the south and the seasonal law of outdoor construction, the demand expectation for rebar is weak [10] Alumina - On May 29, ao2509 closed at 2964 yuan/ton. The alumina market showed an oscillating downward trend, and the market performance was weak. There are still differences between the short - term and medium - long - term supply, and there is still strong uncertainty in overseas ore policies, so the price may fluctuate. The incomplete recovery of short - term maintenance capacity and the supply disturbance of bauxite provide some support for alumina, but the upward space is limited [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On May 29, al2507 closed at 20200 yuan/ton. Although the aluminum inventory is at a low level, providing certain support for the aluminum price, due to the lack of more than expected positive factors at the macro level recently, it is difficult to drive the aluminum price to break through further. At the same time, the off - season pressure on the demand side also limits the upward space of the aluminum price to some extent. Therefore, the aluminum price will maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the short term [11]
国新国证期货早报-20250530
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-30 00:47