尿素早评：成本坍塌与需求滞后-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recent continuous decline of urea, with the main contract falling below 1800, is due to cost collapse from continuous coal - price decline and lagging demand caused by weather - related delays in agricultural demand in some domestic regions [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of further sharp decline in urea price is low [1] - The risk to consider is the change in export policy [1] - The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.47%), UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.46%), and UR09 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic small - particle spot prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 8 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of urea futures main contract 2509 was 1794 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1810 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1773 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1784 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1791 yuan/ton, and the position was 219438 lots [1]