渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.30）-20250530

Market Review - The important indices showed mixed performance over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.50% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.61% [2] - The trading volume continued to shrink, with a total turnover of 5.36 trillion yuan, averaging 1.07 trillion yuan per day, a decrease of 524.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among the industries, the environmental protection, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors saw the highest gains, while the power equipment, comprehensive, and automotive sectors experienced the largest declines [2] Data Insights - From January to April, the profit growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises continued to recover. However, the industrial added value growth rate showed a decline compared to the first quarter due to the impact of tariff policies on exports [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a year-on-year decline, leading to a slight decrease in revenue growth. However, the profit margin decline narrowed, providing some support for enterprise profits [2] - Looking ahead, the easing of Sino-US trade relations in May and the "export rush effect" from tariff exemptions are expected to support revenue and improve profit growth for industrial enterprises [2] Policy Developments - Consumption-boosting measures are being implemented, with the Fujian provincial government announcing a special action plan to enhance consumption, focusing on service consumption and new consumption areas such as health and low-altitude economy [3] - The plan encourages flexible work arrangements to create more consumption scenarios, which is expected to stimulate consumer demand [3] - Overall, these measures are anticipated to provide incremental support for the consumption sector as part of the strategy to strengthen domestic circulation [3] Strategy Outlook - The market is expected to continue oscillating at reasonable levels, with future opportunities depending on incremental changes in the market [4] - If external risks or fundamental factors lead to unexpected downturns, stable funding support may help form a temporary market bottom [4] - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend and relatively underweight sectors like banking, while also looking for thematic investment opportunities in new consumption areas [4]