有色金属日报-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern before the Dragon Boat Festival, with fundamental support weakened but still present [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the decline of PV installation rush and the arrival of the off - season [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 29, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.1% to 78130 yuan/ton. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but was better than the same period. Low - level inventory supports the premium. The price is expected to be volatile before the festival [1]. - Domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the overall trading was quiet [7]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2696 tons to 32165 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 152375 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 29, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.25% to 20200 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing, and the downstream开工率 is weakening. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [2]. - The spot market transaction was stable, but the overall trading was not active [8]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1723 tons to 51819 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2250 tons to 375075 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 29, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.63% to 120480 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market is tight, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The downstream demand is average. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - The spot price of nickel decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 nickel price was 120700 - 123000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121850 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 174 tons to 22170 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 720 tons to 200142 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 29, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract fell 1.48% to 257870 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and the price is volatile. The production and import of tin have changed, and the inventory is at a medium level. The price fluctuation is expected to increase [6]. - The spot price of tin decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 tin price was 257400 - 260400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 258900 yuan/ton, down 5700 yuan from the previous day [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons to 7908 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2680 tons [15]. Other Metals Zinc - The spot zinc market price decreased, and the trading was light. The import of goods made the supply more abundant, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed [10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 tons to 1675 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2075 tons to 141375 tons [15]. Lead - The spot lead price increased slightly. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 lead price was 16660 - 16760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 37252 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 288550 tons [15].