尿素月报：供需双旺，尿素宽幅震荡-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the urea industry will see both supply and demand remain strong, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Supply will be abundant, and demand will have certain support in the first half - month but may slow down in the second half - month. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, with a bottom support [2][3][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In May, the domestic urea supply was abundant, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. The price was firm in the first half - month due to export news and demand stimulation, and then declined as it returned to the domestic supply - demand fundamentals [7][9]. - On the demand side, speculative demand was concentrated in the first half - month, and then demand from compound fertilizer plants and agricultural sectors weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely, and the spot price declined. By the end of May, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 910,000 tons, a 16.40% increase from the previous week [13][15]. Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In May, the domestic urea daily output reached a historical high of 206,000 tons, with an average daily output of 202,200 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared to April [18]. - In 2025, the urea industry's new production capacity is 4 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.87%. In June, a new urea device will be added [21][22]. - In June, the raw coal price is expected to stabilize. The supply is relatively abundant, the power plant inventory is high, and the chemical coal demand is fair [26][28]. - In June, the cash - flow profit of domestic urea enterprises will remain fair. With the stable coal price, the bottom of the urea ex - factory price is supported [30]. - In June, the domestic urea output will continue to rise, with the daily output remaining above 200,000 tons. Six issues need to be focused on, such as the compound fertilizer plant's resumption of high - level operation, Indian tender dynamics, inventory changes, policy influence, etc. [38][41]. - The urea enterprise inventory first increased and then decreased. As of May 21, 2025, the total inventory was 917,400 tons, an increase from the previous week [42]. Demand - In June, domestic rigid demand will still be released to some extent. The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate in the Central Plains will seasonally increase, and the export will also support the price. However, the demand from melamine and plywood factories is general. In late June, the overall demand will enter a weak period [3][44]. - The compound fertilizer plant's operating rate is expected to be high in the first half of June and low in the second half. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production cycle is from November to May - June, and the high - phosphate fertilizer is for autumn crops [46]. - In June, the operating rates of melamine and plywood factories will further decline. The melamine market price may remain stable with a downward trend in the short term [56][61]. - Export policy has been relaxed. With a large price difference between domestic and international markets, exports will support the domestic price. Attention should be paid to international price trends and domestic export volumes [67][70]. - The price - comparison advantage of urea has increased, and the direct agricultural application volume is expected to rise [77]. - The direct agricultural application volume of urea has increased. In 2025, the national agricultural demand will continue to increase steadily, with increased demand for urea from wheat and corn, and in regions like Xinjiang and Northeast China [80][86]. May Market Outlook - Supply: In June, the urea industry profit will remain stable, the output will continue to rise, and the daily output is expected to remain above 200,000 tons [87]. - Demand: In June, rigid demand will be released, the compound fertilizer plant's operating rate will increase seasonally, and exports will support the price. However, in late June, the demand will weaken. Two issues need to be focused on regarding export policies [88]. - Market outlook: In June, new devices will continue to be put into production. In the first half - month, demand will support the price, and exports will increase. In late June, the price is expected to decline, but there is bottom support. The futures price of 09 contract is expected to rise first and then fall. Attention should be paid to macro - policies [89][90][91]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: There is certain bottom support [4]. - Arbitrage: Build long positions in the 9 - 1 spread at low prices [4]. - Options: Wait for the futures price to fall and sell the put option 2509 - P - 1720 [4].