Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Standing at the end of May and looking forward to June, investors' divergence on the next - stage bond market has increased. The cooling of bullish sentiment and the rise in the bearish proportion may indicate an increased possibility of a weak and volatile bond market. The capital market remains the core concern of investors, and their preference for short - term treasury bonds and medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally increased. There are four mainstream expectations for the June bond market: (1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields may be "capped on the upper side and floored on the lower side"; (2) Bullish sentiment in the bond market has cooled, and the bearish proportion has increased, corresponding to a weak and volatile bond market; (3) Investors' expectations for the second - quarter economy have improved. After the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the possibility of further monetary policy easing in the short term is limited. Monetary policy and the capital market remain the core concerns of investors; (4) Under the odds thinking, the preference for short - term treasury bonds and medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has increased, and most investors choose to keep their positions basically stable or hold cash and wait for opportunities [1][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Questionnaire Overview In May 27, 2025, a bond market questionnaire was released, and by May 28, 17:00, 352 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Most investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year treasury bond yield will likely fall within 1.60% - 1.65% (47%), and the upper limit will fall within 1.70% - 1.75% (56%). After the May interest rate cut, investors may adjust their expectations for the core operating range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield. The 1.60% level may face profit - taking pressure, and most investors believe the upper limit will not exceed 1.80% [10][11]. - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: Over 80% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year treasury bond yield will fall within 1.80% - 1.90%, and about 77% think the upper limit will fall within 1.90% - 2.00%. Since May, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has mainly fluctuated within 1.85% - 1.95%, strengthening the expectation of continued volatility [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economy 16% of investors are optimistic about the second - quarter economy, expecting "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth exceeding seasonality"; 23% expect "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth in line with seasonality"; 34% expect "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month growth weaker than seasonality"; 27% are relatively pessimistic, expecting "both year - on - year and month - on - month decline". After the Sino - US joint statement in mid - May, investors' overall expectations for the second - quarter economy have significantly improved, and the proportion of pessimistic expectations has dropped from 62% to 27% [15][17]. 3.4 Expectations for the Next Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut and Interest Rate Cut - Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut: 20% of investors think there will be no more reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, nearly half think the next cut will be in the third quarter, and 28% think it will be in the fourth quarter. - Interest Rate Cut: 18% of investors think there will be no more interest rate cuts this year, nearly half think the next cut will be in the third quarter, and 31% think it will be in the fourth quarter. After the May reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, the overall capital market has not fully relaxed. Due to the Sino - US joint statement, the market expects the pace and intensity of stimulus policies to slow down, and the game around monetary policy will continue [19]. 3.5 Impact of Japanese and US Bond Volatility on the Domestic Bond Market 45% of investors think the recent Japanese and US bond turmoil is limited to overseas bonds and has a relatively limited impact on the domestic bond market. Among those who think it may affect the domestic bond market, most think it will affect the bond market by widening the Sino - US interest rate spread and restricting the space for monetary policy, and some think it may affect the sentiment of treasury bond primary auctions [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the June Bond Market 40% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in June, with 16% expecting a bull - steep yield curve and 24% expecting a bull - flat yield curve. 22% think the bond market will be weak. 17% think the bond market will be differentiated between the short - end and long - end, with a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 9% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. After nearly a month of continuous volatility, investors' divergence on the next - stage bond market has increased, bullish sentiment has cooled, and the proportion of those thinking the bond market will be weak is significantly higher than in April. The insufficient odds of long - term treasury bonds may restrict the further strengthening of the bond market, while the preference for short - term treasury bonds has increased [23]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Strategies 40% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable, 31% think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before adding positions, 12% think they can start adding positions, 12% think they should take profits and reduce positions, and about 5% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and the increase in the proportion of those waiting to add positions at appropriate levels may correspond to the current weak and volatile bond market environment, indicating that the potential buying power in the bond market is still relatively abundant [28]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in June Medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and long - term interest - rate bonds are the most favored by investors. The preference for ultra - long - term bonds has declined, and the preference for negotiable certificates of deposit, medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds and other varieties with good liquidity and higher yields than treasury bonds of the same term has increased. In an environment where the short - term market direction is difficult to determine, investors' preference for long - and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds has decreased, and they prefer medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds for their higher odds. On the basis of relatively controllable credit risks, investors may increase their returns through medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds with good liquidity and relatively high coupon yields [30]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in June Monetary policy and the capital market remain the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to fiscal policy and government bond issuance has decreased, and their attention to the performance of the equity market has increased. The attitude of the central bank's monetary policy and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors. Considering the continuous low - volatility shock of the equity market recently, investors' attention to the subsequent performance of the equity market and its impact on the bond market through the stock - bond seesaw effect has increased [33].
6月债市调研问卷点评：震荡或为债市主旋律
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-30 01:45