银行息差“临界点”在哪儿？

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - Since the LPR reform, multiple factors have led to a continuous decline in net interest margins (NIM), with the NIM dropping by 77 basis points to 1.43% as of Q1 2025 compared to the end of 2019 [1][10] - The current rigid bottom line for NIM is estimated to be 0.67%, indicating that many banks are scoring between 60-100 points under the EPA assessment [2][44] - The NIM is expected to continue a "L-shaped" trend in 2025, with an overall decline of approximately 10 basis points to 1.42% [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Decline in Net Interest Margin - The NIM has been on a downward trajectory since the LPR reform, with a significant drop observed during the pandemic and subsequent economic pressures [1][10] - The decline can be attributed to five main factors: differences in loan and deposit pricing mechanisms, multiple measures promoting lower loan rates, insufficient effective demand, structural changes in retail loan issuance, and chaotic competition leading to significant deviations in interest rates [1][18] 2. Measurement of NIM's Critical Point - The EPA assessment imposes external regulatory constraints on NIM, with a scoring system that categorizes banks based on their NIM performance [2][44] - The sustainable operating critical point for banks is defined as the minimum NIM level that allows for asset expansion while releasing all financial safety cushions [2][49] 3. NIM Trends in 2025 - The NIM is projected to exhibit a "downward trend" in 2025, with a notable decline in the first quarter followed by slight decreases or stabilization in the subsequent quarters [3][4] - Factors influencing this trend include the repricing of existing loans, spontaneous declines in new loan pricing, and adjustments in deposit rates [3][4] 4. Maintaining Bank System Health - The NIM safety cushion is expected to rebound to 75 basis points, providing some room for future interest rate cuts [4] - The central bank is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate reductions to ensure the health of the banking system, suggesting that the declines in loan and deposit rates will not be significant [4]