宝城期货国债期货早报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is that the possibility of continued interest rate cuts is low, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of "oscillating weakly" [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly". In the short term, the upside and downside space of bond futures is limited, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate. Although the short - term market liquidity is tight, the medium - and long - term monetary policy is moderately loose, and the downside space of bond futures is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - TL2509 is expected to oscillate in the short and medium terms and oscillate weakly intraday. The core logic is that the possibility of continued interest rate cuts in the short term is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly". The reason is that the recent concentrated issuance of bonds on the supply side and the high coupon rate have attracted stable funds, putting pressure on bond futures prices. The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 7.1 billion yuan of the third - time continued issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special bonds (Phase II) with a coupon rate of 1.88%, while the 10 - year bond yield is about 1.7%, leading to short - term tight market liquidity. However, the medium - and long - term monetary policy is moderately loose, and the downside space of bond futures is limited [4].