黑色板块日报-20250530

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. The price of steel has broken through the recent trading range downward and is expected to continue the downward trend. For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, the iron ore price may break through downward under the influence of the falling steel price [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot Roll - Market Situation: Policy-side benefits have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in the price. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out. The new construction area has dropped significantly, and the completed and under-construction areas still show large year-on-year declines. The output has decreased, factory and social inventories have continued to decline, and the apparent demand has slightly increased month-on-month. However, the peak season of demand has passed, and demand will weaken further with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, and steel enterprises are less motivated to cut production actively [2] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions [2] - Related Data: Include various data such as spot and futures prices, basis and spreads, steel billet and scrap prices, steel mill production and profitability, output, inventory, spot market transactions, and futures warehouse receipts [2] 2. Iron Ore - Market Situation: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron ore output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, which exerts obvious pressure on the futures price [4] - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [4] - Related Data: Include various data such as spot and futures prices, basis and futures month-to-month spreads, variety spreads, overseas shipments, shipping costs and exchange rates, iron ore arrivals and port clearance volumes, and inventory [4] 3. Industry News - As of May 29, 7 steel mills in Shandong have initially confirmed their annual production targets, with a total output of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year. The planned crude steel output of each steel mill in 2025 has decreased to varying degrees, with a decline of about 4% - 10% [6] - As of the week of May 29, the output and factory inventory of rebar have decreased, social inventory has decreased for the twelfth consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased. Specifically, rebar output was 2.2551 million tons, a decrease of 59,700 tons or 2.58% from the previous week; factory inventory was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.69% from the previous week; social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a decrease of 218,700 tons or 5.25% from the previous week; apparent demand was 2.4868 million tons, an increase of 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [6] - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -39 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi-primary coke was -18 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi-primary coke was 13 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia secondary coke was -87 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi-primary coke was 22 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a week-on-week decrease of 107,000 weight boxes or 0.16%, but still a year-on-year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The total inventory level of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13% from the previous week, and an increase of 22,000 tons or 1.37% from Monday. The short-term inventory reduction of soda ash plants was relatively slow, and the total inventory was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [7]