生猪：去库即将启动，远端预期转强

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current stage will enter the phase of accelerated weight - reduction and de - stocking. If the policy to ban secondary fattening is fully implemented, it means restricting inventory accumulation, and accelerated de - stocking is conducive to the repair of long - term expectations. The January contract, as a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, is entering a stage of enhanced liquidity with strengthening expectations. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), the Sichuan spot price is 14,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. - Futures Prices: The price of the live - hog 2507 contract is 13,215 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year), the 2509 contract is 13,640 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 2511 contract is 13,240 yuan/ton (up 130 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live - hog 2507 contract is 9,096 lots (up 4,567 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 21,731 lots (down 1,993 lots compared to the previous day); the 2509 contract has a trading volume of 51,661 lots (up 34,666 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 79,448 lots (up 1,488 lots compared to the previous day); the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 12,592 lots (up 5,939 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 36,885 lots (up 460 lots compared to the previous day) [2]. - Price Spreads: The basis of the live - hog 2507 contract is 1,285 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), the 2509 contract is 860 yuan/ton (down 130 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 2511 contract is 1,260 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year). The 7 - 9 spread is - 425 yuan/ton (down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 9 - 11 spread is 400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 1, with the range of values for trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The volume - price performance in mid - to - late May confirms the occurrence of passive inventory accumulation. Recently, the secondary - fattening group is worried about later policy restrictions on secondary fattening, so they entered the market in advance and concentratedly at the end of the month, accelerating the inventory - accumulation process. The current stage will enter the phase of accelerated weight - reduction and de - stocking [4].