国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience weak oscillations as downstream demand has reached a temporary peak [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to trade in a low - level range due to the anticipation of a negative feedback mechanism [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation as the main production areas resume operations, while silicomanganese is likely to be weak due to the pressure on port ore transactions [2][12]. - Coke is at the bottom - end of the oscillation after the second round of price cuts, and coking coal is also at the bottom - end of the oscillation [2][16]. - Thermal coal is expected to have a weak oscillation as coal mine inventories increase [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The previous day's futures closing price was 707.0 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The previous day's position was 716,254 lots, down 5,254 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the basis and spreads showing different changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26.2755 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous year, and the total profit was 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [4]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with a trading volume of 1,333,951 lots and a position of 2,441,388 lots, up 41,409 lots. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%, with a trading volume of 452,531 lots and a position of 1,537,114 lots, up 23,289 lots. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data from Shanghai Steel Union on May 29, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 8.41 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 32.94 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 1.55 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 9.23 tons. In April 2025, China's steel exports were 10.462 million tons, basically the same as the previous month; from January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, the global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.3%, pig iron decreased by 0.4%, and steel increased by 1.9% [9][10]. - Trend Intensity: Rebar is 0 (neutral), and hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: For ferrosilicon futures, the 2507 contract closed at 5322 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5226 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese futures, the 2506 contract closed at 5492 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5530 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various price differences also showed corresponding changes [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On May 29, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some areas. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps in July 2025, with an increase in the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Henan set the price of silicomanganese at 5550 yuan/ton for a purchase volume of 5000 tons [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: Ferrosilicon is - 1 (weak bearish), and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak bearish) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: For coking coal futures JM2509, the previous day's closing price was 759 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 2.57%, with a trading volume of 709,680 lots and a position of 540,328 lots, up 13,462 lots. For coke futures J2509, the previous day's closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.49%, with a trading volume of 28,870 lots and a position of 56,432 lots, down 1050 lots. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding fluctuations [16]. - Price and Position Information: Northern port coking coal quotes are provided, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on May 29 shows price changes. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long position of coking coal JM2509 increased by 12,175 lots, and the short position increased by 8353 lots; the long position of coke J2509 increased by 50 lots, and the short position decreased by 810 lots [16][17][18]. - Trend Intensity: Coke is - 1 (weak bearish), and coking coal is - 1 (weak bearish) [18]. Thermal Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The ZC2506 contract of thermal coal had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 18 lots and a position of 0 lots [19]. - Fundamental Information: Southern port quotes for foreign - traded thermal coal and domestic production area quotes for thermal coal are provided. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2506 contract both decreased by 0 lots [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [21]. Logs - Fundamental Tracking: Data on closing prices, trading volumes, positions, basis, and spot prices of different log contracts and varieties are provided, along with daily and weekly price change rates [24]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 2.773 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% [26]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [26].