Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.65%, 0.26%, 0.15%, and 0.06% respectively. The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, and the US government's tariff policy is uncertain. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and one should remain cautious [5][7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 0.68%, 0.25%, 1.89%, and 2.35% respectively. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering the significant progress of the Sino - US trade agreement, one can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver showed declines. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining. There is a risk of further price decline, but the valuation is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is high. It has found support near the previous low. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has weakened. The futures have reached new lows, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. One can consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon and exiting short positions on ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. The OPEC + meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply. The US tariff policy is uncertain. It is suitable for short - term operations, and one can temporarily observe the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil showed a trend of rising and then falling, with a relatively strong performance. The cost - side crude oil is expected to rise due to the OPEC meeting, and the court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to fuel oil prices. One can temporarily observe the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of natural rubber showed mixed performance. The demand side is worried about the future, and the inventory has increased against the season. One should wait for the market to stabilize and temporarily observe [31][33]. PVC - Last trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, the main contract of urea declined. In the short term, the cost has decreased, and the demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price to rise. One can consider going long at low levels [37][39]. PX - Last trading day, the main contract of PX rose. The supply - demand structure is tight, and the PXN spread has support. It should be treated with a cautious and bullish mindset [40]. PTA - Last trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It may oscillate and strengthen in the short term, and one can operate in the low - level range [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and one should pay attention to inventory and policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has slightly recovered, and the cost has a driving force. It is expected to oscillate and strengthen following the cost, and one can participate cautiously at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost has support, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and one should participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is expected to oscillate steadily [46]. Glass - Last trading day, the main contract of glass declined. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [47][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main contract of caustic soda declined. The supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. One should pay attention to device operations and liquid chlorine prices [51]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main contract of pulp rose slightly. The domestic and international supply is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound briefly, and one should pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [52]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated higher. The court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to the market sentiment, and there is a basis for copper price increase. One can operate with a long - bias on the main contract [54][55]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to face pressure and oscillate downward [56]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost has support, but the downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue, and one should pay attention to opportunities after the macro - sentiment recovers [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal is high, and one can observe. The downward space of soybean oil is limited, and one can consider out - of - the - money call options [58][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has risen for five consecutive days. Malaysia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio. One can focus on opportunities to widen the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between soybean oil and palm oil [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is mixed. The domestic inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a low or high level in recent years. One can focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures declined slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to cotton exports. The supply - demand situation is complex, and one can wait for a pull - back to go long [65][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures declined slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is low. One can operate within the oscillation range [70][71][72]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. There are signs of production reduction in some areas, and the inventory is lower than last year. One can focus on buying opportunities after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main contract of live pigs rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. One can consider positive spreads on the peak - season contracts [74][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, the price of eggs was stable. The egg production capacity is increasing, and the price decline risk has been released in the main contract. One can consider short - selling after a rebound [78][79]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the main contracts of corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and one can temporarily observe [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose slightly. The expected arrival volume at ports has increased, and the spot price has declined. The market has no obvious driving force, and the support for the futures price is weak [83][84].
西南期货早间评论-20250530
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-05-30 02:04