石化化工交运行业日报第71期：国产替代进程持续推进，看好半导体材料、MXD6、离子交换树脂-20250530

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical transportation industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The process of domestic substitution continues to advance, with a positive outlook on semiconductor materials, MXD6, and ion exchange resins [1][2] - The U.S. government has effectively cut off certain American companies from selling semiconductor design software to China, impacting companies like Cadence, Synopsys, and Siemens EDA [2] - Global semiconductor sales are expected to improve in 2024, with an estimated sales figure of approximately $630.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of about 19.7% [2] - The semiconductor materials industry in China has achieved significant progress in key areas, but high-end materials are still dominated by foreign manufacturers [2] - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is projected to grow from $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, with a CAGR of approximately 7.1% [3] - The ion exchange resin market is primarily dominated by foreign leaders, but domestic companies are making strides in achieving domestic substitution [4] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor market is expected to reach $697.1 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11% [2] - Domestic semiconductor materials have largely achieved layout or mass production in key areas, but high-end materials still rely heavily on imports [2] MXD6 - MXD6 is used in lightweight applications for automobiles and drones, with domestic companies overcoming technical barriers to increase production [3] - Major domestic players like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are advancing in MXD6 production capabilities [3] Ion Exchange Resins - The high-end ion exchange resin market is largely monopolized by multinational corporations, while domestic companies are gradually improving their competitive edge [4] - Domestic companies are achieving significant performance levels in core products and expanding their market influence [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [5] - It also recommends attention to domestic material companies benefiting from the substitution trend, such as Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [5] - Positive monetary and fiscal policies are expected to benefit the real estate chain and leading companies, with a focus on agricultural chemicals and private refining sectors [5]