商品期货早班车-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for various commodities shows different trends and characteristics, with each commodity facing unique supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these fundamentals [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Copper: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The Trump administration's tariff appeal, a weaker dollar, and low risk appetite put pressure on base metals. Social inventory decreased weekly, and downstream stocking was limited. It is expected to continue range - bound in the short term [1]. - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract price rose 0.52% to 20,185 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with increasing operating capacity, while demand is slowing with a slight decline in the aluminum product start - up rate. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Alumina: The 2509 contract price fell 0.90% to 2,964 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity release, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also rising. The expected supply surplus suppresses futures prices, but there is uncertainty in Guinea's mining policy [1]. - Zinc: The 2506 contract price rose 1.24% to 22,780 yuan/ton. Social inventory decreased. The supply is relatively loose with high raw material inventory in smelters and the resumption of some smelters. Apparent consumption shows resilience. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Lead: The 2506 contract price rose 0.09% to 16,715 yuan/ton. The supply of recycled lead increases with new capacity and production resumption, while demand from lead - acid battery markets is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a small range [1][2]. - Tin: The price continued to weaken. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and concerns about increased supply from Myanmar's resumption of production led to a bearish market. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: The price hit a new low. Supply did not contract significantly, and there was a high inventory. Demand from the polysilicon industry may decline in May. The price is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 8,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Carbonate Lithium: The 2507 contract price fell 2.52%. Supply increased with a weekly output of 16,580 tons (up 3.03% week - on - week). Demand growth was slow, and inventory was high with a slight decrease. It is recommended to hold short positions or short sell far - month contracts [2]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price showed a differentiated performance. Supply was relatively stable in the short term, and inventory decreased but remained high. Demand in the component segment was weak. After the 06 contract delivery month, consider short - selling the 07 contract on rebounds [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The 2510 contract price rose. Steel demand increased marginally, and production decreased. It is recommended to close long positions and consider short - selling for aggressive investors [4]. - Iron Ore: The 2509 contract price rose. Port inventory decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and the medium - term supply surplus remained. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Coking Coal: The 2509 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first - round price cut was implemented, with a second - round cut proposed. Supply was relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term from South America and the sowing of new US soybeans is accelerating. Demand is seasonally weak. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market will follow the international market [5]. - Corn: The 2507 contract price rebounded slightly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally this year. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen due to wheat price support [5]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract price fell 0.21%. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The domestic market is affected by import and inventory conditions. The price trend follows the raw sugar market and is expected to be bearish [5][6]. - Cotton: The US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated downward. Yarn prices are weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - Palm Oil: The price rebounded. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand for exports has improved. The price is expected to be in a weak but not smooth phase [6]. - Eggs: The 2506 contract price oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Hogs: The 2509 contract price rebounded after hitting a low. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak due to high temperatures. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy [6]. - Apples: The price is at a high - level oscillation. New - season production is affected by extreme weather, and there are concerns about yield. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing with new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and demand is in the off - season for agricultural films. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8]. - PVC: The V09 contract price fell 0.6%. Supply is expected to increase with new device production and some maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and demand for exports has slowed. It is recommended to close short positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - Rubber: The 2509 contract price fell 1.35%. Raw material prices are falling, and the market is weak. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and consider an arbitrage strategy [8]. - Glass: The FG09 contract price fell 3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - PP: The price oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new device production, and demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8][9]. - Crude Oil: The price fluctuated. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and Kazakhstan's non - reduction stance increased supply concerns. The price is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and OPEC meeting [9]. - Styrene: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase with inventory accumulation, and demand is affected by downstream profit and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be short - sold in the medium term [9]. - Soda Ash: The SA09 contract price fell 1.5%. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - Caustic Soda: The sh09 contract price rose 1.2%. Some manufacturers' inventory is tight, and the price is rising. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9].