宝城期货原油早报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly. In the short - term (within a week), mid - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the crude oil 2507 contract shows an oscillating trend, with an intraday weak - oscillating tendency. The overall view is a weak operation due to increased supply expectations [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is a weak operation, and the core logic is that the expected increase in supply leads to the weak - oscillating trend of crude oil [1] 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Major Varieties - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weakly oscillating, and the mid - term view is oscillating, with a reference view of weak operation. As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production increases, with a general market expectation of an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, combined with the previous increase in daily production targets in April, May, and June by about 1 million barrels, the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Under increasing supply pressure, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weak downward trend on Thursday night, with the futures price dropping 1.97% to 452.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday may maintain a weakly oscillating trend [5]