甲醇：短期震荡中期趋势仍偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The classification of strength levels includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. Under the influence of a weak macro - environment, some inland downstream industries stopped purchasing methanol externally, and there was an expected increase in overall domestic supply. The market was dominated by a bearish sentiment, and the domestic methanol market was under pressure. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. The inventory accumulation rhythm of port methanol needs to be monitored. The medium - term trend remains weak, and the overall absolute price is bearish [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,218 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,201 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the trading volume was 911,793 lots, an increase of 378,649 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 849,416 lots, an increase of 9,385 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,600 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 20,067.69 million yuan, an increase of 82,913.9 million yuan; the Ganglian basis was 36, up 4; the MA09 - MA01 spread was - 71, up 2 [2]. - Spot Market: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 2,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Situation Analysis - Price Trend: This week, the domestic methanol market continued to decline. The inland market declined more than the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened [4]. - Inventory Situation: This week, the methanol port inventory stopped falling and rebounded, with 24.56 million tons of explicit unloading. The inventory in the Jiangsu River area increased slightly due to increased ship - loading support; the inventory in Zhejiang increased due to more unloading of foreign vessels. The inventory in the South China ports decreased slightly. The inventory in Guangdong decreased due to good consumption by downstream industries, and the inventory in Fujian continued to decrease under the consumption of downstream industries [4]. - Medium - term Outlook: The medium - term trend remains weak. The methanol shipment situation in Iran is still the focus of market speculation. The shipment speed in Iran is gradually slowing down, and the inventory accumulation speed at ports after June is expected to be lower than previously anticipated. However, the profit of inland coal - based methanol is currently high, and the device supply will further return after June. In June, the inland market will likely focus on compressing methanol profits, and the overall absolute price is bearish [4][5].