国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250530

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Short - term cost support exists, but weak expectations limit its upward elasticity [4]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to an increasing marginal reduction in production, making a sharp decline difficult [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The inventory reduction speed is slow, and the trend may remain weak [11]. - Industrial silicon: The futures price hits a new low [6]. - Polysilicon: Volatility has increased, and cautious position - holding is recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 120,480 yuan, and the main stainless - steel contract is 12,690 yuan. There are also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, spreads, and import profits [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia have entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance [5][6][8][9]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 (neutral) [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2507 contract is 58,860 yuan. There are data on trading volume,持仓量, basis, raw - material prices, and lithium - salt prices. The total weekly inventory is 131,571 tons, a decrease of 208 tons from last week [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has decreased [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1 (weak) [13]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2507 contract is 7,215 yuan, and the PS2507 contract is 35,280 yuan. There are data on trading volume,持仓量, basis, prices, profits, and inventory for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The environmental impact report of a 400,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Xinjiang has been approved [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1 (weak) [16].