镍：短线成本支撑，弱预期限制弹性，不锈钢：负反馈导致减产边际增加，深跌具有难度

Report Title - Nickel: Short-term cost support, weak expectations limit flexibility [1] - Stainless Steel: Negative feedback leads to an increase in marginal production cuts, making a deep decline difficult [2] Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has short-term cost support, but weak expectations limit its upward flexibility [1] - The stainless steel market experiences negative feedback, resulting in an increase in marginal production cuts, and it is difficult for prices to decline significantly [2] Fundamental Tracking Nickel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,480, down 2,920 from T - 5 and 3,700 from T - 22 [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 181,192, up 79,974 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 1 imported nickel is 120,375, down 3,175 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 954, up 5 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 250, down 37 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate import profit is - 2,830, up 382 from T - 5 [2] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,690, down 190 from T - 5 [2] - The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 139,550, up 21,935 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100, down 75 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, unchanged from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) is 12,775, unchanged from T - 5 [2] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will take effect on April 26, 2025 [2] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [3] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial production stage, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [5] - The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the government plans to implement an export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue the shutdown and maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7] - The trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]