煤焦早报：供给继续回落，矿山继续累库，煤焦增仓下行-20250530

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for coke and coking coal are both "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of coking coal is starting to contract, and the biggest bearish pressure is loosening. The price of Mongolian coal has continued to decline. The domestic coking coal mine operating rate has fallen from a high level, but the mine's raw coal inventory has not declined due to poor trading. If the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, cost and downstream demand are the decisive factors for its future trend. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices, coke enterprises still have a small profit, and the supply remains flat. The pig iron output has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating that demand has peaked. Under the weakening supply - demand situation, the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and there is still room for two more rounds of price cuts in the spot market [5] - From the economic data in April, the number of cities with a month - on - month increase in real estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of industrial added value have both declined to some extent compared with March, and are greatly affected by tariffs. Although the total social financing data still shows a year - on - year increase, in terms of structure, it is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. The government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises. The market is most looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand [4] - The farce of US tariffs has resurfaced. After the court ruled on the 29th that the Trump administration's tariff administrative order was invalid, the White House suspended the judgment through an appeal. There will be a tug - of - war over the tariff policy in the US, and it is difficult to get a final result in the short term. Recently, disturbances on the supply side have gradually increased, but the market has hardly reacted, and the prices of coal and coke have continued to decline. Calculated in the extreme case, the cost of coking coal is about 750, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high. After the market trend reaches an extreme, capital game is often an important factor determining the market bottoming out, and coking coal is the main battlefield for the long - short game at present [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Spot and Futures Prices: The price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking coal is reported at 918 yuan/ton (-2), and the active contract is reported at 759 yuan/ton (-20). The basis is 179 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -19 yuan/ton (-3) [1] - Supply - Side Situation: The mine operation continues to decline, with the operating rate of 523 mines reported at 85.49% (-0.81), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants reported at 61.55% (-0.81). The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1) [2] - Inventory Situation: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 473.03 million tons (+25.5), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 222.07 million tons (+7.33), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 786.79 million tons (-11.96), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 716.66 million tons (-21.3), and the port inventory is 303.09 million tons (+1.53) [2] Coke - Spot and Futures Prices: The second - round price cut of coke spot has been fully implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1340 yuan/ton (-0). The active contract is reported at 1332 yuan/ton (-6.5). The basis is 109.52 yuan/ton (+6.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is -18 yuan/ton (+6) [3] - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply remains flat, and the demand has peaked and declined. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 75.08% (-0.1). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.32% (-0.44), and the daily average pig iron output is 243.6 million tons (-1.17) [3] - Inventory Situation: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 73.1 million tons (+7.64), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 660.59 million tons (-3.21), and the port inventory is 223.1 million tons (-2.02) [3] Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to continue to hold a small - position long position in the J09 contract and wait to confirm the bottom before adding positions [6]