化工日报：轮胎厂开工率环比下降-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated cautiously bearish [5] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, as market sentiment eases, rubber prices stopped falling. With the full opening of the main producing areas, the supply of natural rubber is expected to increase. Although there is still rainfall in the producing areas, raw material prices remain firm. China's imports in April increased year-on-year, and the storage rate at Qingdao Port has increased. Downstream tire demand lacks highlights, but there may still be support from pre - export rush after the Sino - US trade easing. At the current low price level, attention should be paid to the intensity of demand recovery [5] - For BR, the rebound of crude oil prices led to a stop - fall rebound of BR. After a significant decline, the production loss of BR has increased. The weak price of natural rubber has led to a continuous decline in the price difference between natural rubber and BR, weakening the support for downstream replacement demand. With Yanshan Petrochemical's maintenance this week and low private device loads due to upstream losses, the overall supply pressure is small and the output may continue to decline this week. Downstream semi - steel tire factories reported weak orders, and the supply - demand pattern shows a double - weak situation [5] Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the futures side, on May 29, 2025, the closing price of the RU main contract was 13,880 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,580 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton. On the spot side, the price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,700 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Export and Production Data - From January to April 2025, Thailand exported 1.014 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year increase of 2%. Exports to China totaled 451,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31% [2] - From January to April 2025, Vietnam exported 168,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [2] - The ANRPC's April 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in April would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, a 3.9% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons, a 10.4% decrease from the previous month [2] - In April 2025, China's passenger car tire exports were 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.94%. From January to April, the cumulative export volume was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.04% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On May 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 30 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was - 70 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 7,005 yuan/ton (+178.50), the NR basis was 76.00 yuan/ton (- 117.00); the price of whole latex was 13,850 yuan/ton (+100), the price of mixed rubber was 13,950 yuan/ton (+150), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+100); the STR20 was quoted at 1,760 US dollars/ton (+30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 1,400 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,050 yuan/ton (+150) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 67.93 baht/kg (- 0.62), the price of Thai latex was 62.25 baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.95 baht/kg (- 1.65), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 12.30 baht/kg (+1.15) [4] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.80% (- 1.29%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.51% (- 1.23%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,308,358 tons (- 34,097.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 614,584 tons (+395), the RU futures inventory was 199,540 tons (- 730), and the NR futures inventory was 43,544 tons (- 26,713) [4] BR - Spot and Spreads: On May 29, 2025, the BR basis was 5 yuan/ton (- 145), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,400 yuan/ton (+50), the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 2,105 yuan/ton (- 2) [4] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 73.54% (- 2.02%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,360 tons (+560), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 28,100 tons (+1,100) [5]