集运指数（欧线）：近月高位震荡，10-12反套持有，逢高建空10

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2506 closely follows the spot freight rate and fluctuates within a range. The EC2508 may experience wide - range fluctuations (1900 - 2400 points) due to the shipping companies' price hikes in late June and July and the subsequent freight rate decline after the peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see. The EC2510 may be anchored to the lowest price of the year, and there are medium - to - long - term opportunities to short at high prices. The strategy is to hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread and pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2510 contract at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of EC2506, EC2508, and EC2510 were 1,808.0, 2,131.0, and 1,392.4 respectively, with daily increases of 1.07%, 6.34%, and 0.90%. The trading volumes were 12,398, 131,155, and 20,291, and the open interests were 12,716, 46,578, and 24,224, with changes of - 3,230, 2,813, and 1,075 respectively [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS European route index was 1,247.05, down 1.4% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,719.79, up 18.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was 1,317, up 14.1% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was 3,275, up 6.0% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight: The freight rates for 40'GP and 20'GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam or Antwerp of different carriers in June and July ranged from $1,358 - $3,260 for 40'GP and $1,467 - $2,305 for 20'GP [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 99.33, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.19 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Market Sentiment: The container shipping index was strong. CMA CGM's price increase announcements for late June and July, along with the US court's "halt" of tariffs, boosted market sentiment. The short - selling funds had previously shorted based on the under - expected rush of exports on the US route and the delivery logic [14]. - Spot Freight Rates: In the 23rd week, the mainstream shipping companies' FAK freight rates were revised to the range of $2,200 - $2,600/FEU, with an average of around $2,500/FEU, equivalent to about 1,750 points on the SCFIS index. Maersk's opening rate in the 24th week was $2,100/FEU, a slight decrease of $100/FEU compared to the previous period. COSCO's Shanghai rate in the 24th week was $2,800/FEU, up $200/FEU. There are still expectations for OA Alliance to announce price increases in the second half of June, with the expected price range of $3,000 - $3,500/FEU, and CMA CGM's expected price increase for July is around $4,100 - $4,200/FEU [14]. - Capacity: In the second half of June, the average capacity changed little but was more evenly distributed. In July, the weekly average capacity remained around 300,000 TEU/week after adjustments. On the US route, the weekly average capacity in June increased by 20% compared to May, and new routes were opened [15][17]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) was 0, indicating a neutral trend [19].