贵金属：中期支撑明确，等待进一步回调

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The price of gold has a positive correlation with the level of US fiscal deficit, and the mid - term upward logic of gold prices is further clarified. However, in the short term, there are still downside risks to the price. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for the price to pull back further before buying on dips [2][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Trump Administration Promotes a New Round of Tax Cuts, and the Mid - term Upward Logic of Gold Prices is Further Clarified - Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks. Historical data shows that when the US fiscal deficit expands, the price of gold rises. For example, during the Bush administration from 2001 - 2008 and the Trump administration from 2017 - 2020, the fiscal deficit increased, and the price of gold also rose significantly [4]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" promoted by the Trump administration aims to extend most provisions of the "2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" and introduce new tax cuts. It is estimated to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.8 trillion in the next ten fiscal years and raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. After Trump's clear stance, the market's expectation of deficit control faded, and the gold price strengthened in the short term. After the bill passed the House of Representatives, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit in the medium term was further confirmed, so the gold price will generally show a strong performance during the Trump administration [5]. - The weakening of US dollar credit caused by US debt expansion is reflected in the US Treasury bond auctions. The winning bid rate of the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction on May 21 was significantly higher than that in April, and the bid - to - cover ratio was lower. The supply of US Treasury bonds is expected to increase, and the supply - demand pattern will deteriorate. Gold is an important alternative to US Treasury bonds [10][13]. The Fed's Hawkish Stance and the Release of Tariff Risks Will Cause the Gold Price to Continue to Pull Back in the Short Term - The Fed's monetary policy stance is hawkish. The Fed meeting minutes show that the participants believe that it is appropriate to adopt a cautious monetary policy. The market currently only expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points this year, significantly less than the expectation at the end of April [14]. - The risk of Trump's tariff policy has been released in the short term. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff collection was an over - stepping of power, and most tariffs will be suspended. After the ruling was announced, the international gold price fell in the short term, reflecting the weakening of the gold's safe - haven drive [14].