五矿期货早报有色金属-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metals market is complex, affected by factors such as trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. Each metal has its own unique price trends and influencing factors [1][3][4][5][6][8][10][12][14]. - For copper, although there is support from supply tightness, attention should be paid to the risk of economic slowdown in the medium - term. For aluminum, low inventory supports prices, but the market atmosphere is not optimistic. For lead, the cost support may weaken if scrap prices fall further. For zinc, there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates. For tin, the supply is expected to turn looser, and demand is dragging down prices. For nickel, macro uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. For lithium carbonate, prices may continue to decline without supply disruptions. For alumina, it is recommended to short at high prices. For stainless steel, the market may continue to decline weakly [1][3][4][5][6][8][10][12][14]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose slightly by 0.01% to $9567/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 77850 yuan/ton. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9450 - 9650 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1925 to 152375 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 3.2 million tons. The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly [1]. - Market situation: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the short - term supply disruptions support copper prices. However, pay attention to the risk of economic slowdown in the medium - term [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.59% to $2450/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2430 - 2480 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 1.2 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 5.2 million tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased [3]. - Market situation: Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but the market atmosphere is not optimistic, and the trade situation is volatile [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.26% to 16745 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased to 4.57 million tons [4]. - Market situation: The production of recycled lead enterprises is decreasing, and the cost support may weaken if scrap prices fall further [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 1.11% to 22407 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2716.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.50 million tons, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - term [5]. - Market situation: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates [5]. Tin - Price: Tin prices continued to fall due to the expectation of mine restart. The reference range for domestic main contract is 240000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 29000 - 32000 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 to 7984 tons, and LME inventory increased by 20 to 2680 tons [7]. - Market situation: The supply is expected to turn looser, and demand is weak, dragging down prices [6][7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded significantly. The reference range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Market situation: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak. Macro uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index fell 1.62% to 60737 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed 2.52% lower at 58860 yuan. The reference range for GC lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 58000 - 59800 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.2% to 131571 tons [10]. - Market situation: The supply clearance is slow, and prices may continue to decline without supply disruptions [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 1% to 2945 yuan/ton. The reference range for domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.33 to 14.02 million tons [12]. - Market situation: The alumina production capacity is in excess, and it is recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to changes in bauxite prices [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12680 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The 304 stainless - steel market may continue to decline weakly in the short - term [14]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14]. - Market situation: The spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a difficult situation of "the lower the price, the harder to sell" [14].