化工日报：美国法院叫停特朗普关税，EG止跌反弹-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The US court halted Trump's tariffs, causing EG to stop falling and rebound. The EG main contract closed at 4359 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton, +1.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4496 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton, +0.45% from the previous trading day) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -27 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 147 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data on Mondays, MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 68.7 tons (down 5.6 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 7.6 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 9.2 tons [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, several large plants like Satellite still have maintenance plans, so the domestic EG load will remain low in the short term. The polyester load has declined recently but is still at a high level. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, leading to concentrated shipments of US orders. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and with the high polyester load, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol is significant. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts and macro - news changes [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Several large plants like Satellite have maintenance plans, the liquidity is tightened due to the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume provides short - term price support. For inter - period trading, a long - near and short - far spread strategy is recommended, and there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4359 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton, +1.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4496 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton, +0.45% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 151 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -27 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 147 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton). Several large plants like Satellite still have maintenance plans, so the domestic EG load will remain low in the short term [1][2]. 3. International Spread - No specific data or analysis on international spread is provided in the content other than the mention of the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. 4. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The polyester load has declined recently but is still at a high level. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, leading to concentrated shipments of US orders [2]. 5. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 68.7 tons (down 5.6 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 7.6 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 9.2 tons. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and with the high polyester load, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol is significant [1][2].