新能源及有色金属日报：端午节前现货市场补库积极性不高-20250530

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market's restocking enthusiasm is low before the Dragon Boat Festival. Strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may face a test in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.27/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is flat at 22,830 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is down 10 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 15 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is flat at 22,840 yuan/ton, and the premium is up 25 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 184,818 lots, an increase of 22,593 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 119,380 lots, a decrease of 3,627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 22,530 yuan/ton and the lowest 22,225 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of May 29, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM is 75,000 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of May 29, 2025, the LME zinc inventory is 141,375 tons, a decrease of 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot Market: Traders continue to hold up prices, and the spot premium rises. The absolute price fluctuates, which does not meet the downstream's psychological expectations, so the pre - festival restocking enthusiasm is poor [3] - Supply: A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance due to an accident, and the specific resumption time is undetermined, which caused the zinc price to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacks continuous power. The overseas mine output in the first quarter was lower than expected, but domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The TC in June will continue to rise, and smelting still makes a profit at the current TC price, so the supply pressure remains [3] - Consumption: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. Consumption may face a test in June. Since the time window for rush - exporting is approaching the end and there is an over - drafting situation, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [3]