银河期货每日早盘观察-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean/M粕类: International soybeans are in a high - yield pattern, with high production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, the pressure of soybean arrival is increasing, and although the demand is good, there is an obvious pressure of bean粕 inventory accumulation [2][3][5]. - Sugar: The raw sugar is dragged down by the expected high yield in Brazil and its trend is weak. In China, due to the lag in summer stocking demand and the short - term weak trend of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain weak [7][10]. - Oils and Fats: The rumor of India's tax reduction was refuted, and the Malaysian palm oil market declined. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to increase production and accumulate inventory in May. The inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean oil may slow down, and the supply of rapeseed oil exceeds demand, but the decline space is limited [15][18]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The sowing of US corn is accelerating, and the external corn price is falling. In China, the supply of corn is relatively low, and the spot price is stable. The futures price has strong support [23][26]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak [30]. - Peanuts: The spot trading volume of peanuts is still low, and the price of new - season peanuts in Henan is rising. The import volume has decreased significantly. The downstream consumption is still weak, and the price of peanut粕 is stable. The price of peanut oil is strong, but the market for oil - using peanuts is weak. The price of 10 - contract peanuts is expected to have limited rebound space [32][34]. - Eggs: The overall supply of eggs is sufficient, and the egg price has stabilized recently. It is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [41][45]. - Apples: Currently in the weather - trading peak, the recent rainfall in Shaanxi has alleviated the drought. In the consumption off - season, the spot market sales have slowed down, but the low inventory supports the price. The 2510 contract is expected to have limited downward space [49][52]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The market is mainly dominated by macro factors. The uncertainty has increased, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to leave the market and wait and see [54][58]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - External Market: CBOT soybean index rose 0.58% to 1045.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT bean粕 index rose 0.53% to 301.8 dollars per short ton [2]. - Related Information: Forecasts for USDA export sales, EU rapeseed production increase, potential slowdown in Brazilian soybean exports, and domestic oil - mill data on soybean and bean粕 inventory [2]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - wait and see; Arbitrage - M11 - 1 positive spread, MRM09 spread widening; Options - sell wide - straddle strategy [6]. Sugar - External Market: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.14 (0.83%) to 17.04 cents per pound [7]. - Important Information: Data on Brazilian port sugar waiting for shipment, India's sugar domestic sales quota, Yunnan's sugar production and sales, and the decline in average yield and sugar - output per ton of sugarcane in Brazil's 2025/26 season [8][9]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - virtual - value ratio spread options [11][12][13]. Oils and Fats - External Market: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by 0.96% to 48.39 cents per pound; BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.76% to 3903 ringgit per ton [15]. - Related Information: Malaysia's plan to increase biodiesel blending ratio, USDA export sales forecasts for US soybeans, bean粕, and soybean oil, and Canada's rapeseed export and inventory data [16][17]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and palm oil can be short - sold at the upper edge of the range; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [19][20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - External Market: CBOT corn futures fell, with the main contract down 0.3% to 447.5 cents per bushel [23]. - Important Information: CBOT soft red winter wheat price increase, feed enterprise inventory data, corn processing enterprise inventory data, and corn price stability in North ports and North China [25]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - the 07 - contract corn has support around 440 cents per bushel, close out long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage - conduct oscillatory operations on corn - starch spread, go long on 09 - contract starch and short 09 - contract corn when the price is low; Options - those with spot can consider the strategy of selling put options when the price is high [27][28]. Pigs - Related Information: Pig price stability in different regions, changes in piglet and sow prices, and changes in the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and pork wholesale price [30]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - the price is expected to fluctuate; Arbitrage - LH79 reverse spread; Options - sell wide - straddle strategy [31]. Peanuts - Important Information: Peanut prices in different regions, arrival and transaction prices at oil mills, peanut oil and peanut粕 prices, and inventory data of peanut and peanut oil [32][33]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - short the 10 - contract peanuts when the price is high; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - sell pk510 - C - 8600 options [35][36][37]. Eggs - Important Information: Egg price changes in main production and sales areas, data on the number of laying hens in production, egg - chick hatching volume, egg - chicken culling volume, egg sales volume, inventory, and profit [41][42][43]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - close out short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage - go long on 08 - contract and short 09 - contract; Options - wait and see [45][46][47]. Apples - Important Information: Apple cold - storage inventory, export and import data, market conditions, prices, and storage - merchant profits [49][50][51]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - buy the 10 - contract apples at low prices; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [57][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - External Market: ICE US cotton fell, with the main contract down 0.30 (0.46%) to 65.03 cents per pound [54]. - Important Information: Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listing volume, US cotton planting rate, and the news about US tariff administrative orders [55][58]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral - US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate; Arbitrage - wait and see; Options - wait and see [59][60][61].