煤炭供给最重要变量：疆煤受价降而减量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply-demand inventory fundamentals are improving, leading to a stabilization of coal prices. The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation [3][6] - Domestic coal production has seen a significant decline, particularly in Xinjiang, where April's output dropped by 23.8% month-on-month [4][8] - The economic viability of coal transportation from Xinjiang has weakened due to falling prices, which may limit external coal supply [4][5] - Xinjiang's coal production capacity is expected to increase by over 20 million tons in 2025, driven by new projects [5][21] - The report suggests that the reduction in coal transportation from Xinjiang will benefit domestic coal prices, with a potential rebound in the market [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The coal market has experienced a structural oversupply, leading to a decrease in coal prices since early 2025. April's coal production was 38.931 million tons, down 11.6% from March [3][4] - Xinjiang's coal production in April was 3.9239 million tons, a decrease of 1.2227 million tons from March [8] Price Trends - From January to May 2025, the average price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port has consistently declined, with May's price at 620 yuan/ton, reflecting a 6.2% month-on-month drop [4] - The pithead price of thermal coal in Xinjiang has also decreased significantly, with May's average at 337 yuan/ton [4] Supply Dynamics - The report highlights that Xinjiang's coal production capacity is set to expand, with new mines expected to contribute an additional 20 million tons in 2025 [5][21] - The anticipated increase in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang could absorb an additional 367 million tons of coal demand [21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal sector investments, particularly in companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, as the market conditions improve [6][22]