宏观视角：法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？

Legal Implications - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs under the IEEPA exceeded presidential authority, marking a significant limitation on his power to impose tariffs[1] - The ruling requires the Trump administration to terminate related tariffs by June 7, 2025, unless an appeal is granted[2] Tariff Adjustments - The probability of the U.S. adjusting tariffs on Mexico and Canada has increased, with a potential final tariff level closer to the lower end of 15%[10] - The U.S. may still impose tariffs on specific countries and industries, with the possibility of using other legal provisions to maintain a 10% global tariff temporarily[3] Revenue Projections - If the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on its top 10-15 trade surplus countries, it could generate approximately $240-290 billion in annual tariff revenue[4] - The average U.S. tariff rate is expected to rise by about 4.5-5.4 percentage points due to strategic tariffs on key industries[5] Strategic Considerations - The U.S. is likely to maintain high tariffs on China, with cumulative tariffs expected to reach 30-40%, despite potential adjustments in structure[6] - The ongoing legal and political battles over tariffs indicate a shift of power back to Congress, although there remains a consensus within the current administration for certain tariff levels[7] Risks and Challenges - There is a risk of unexpected fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies, particularly in negotiations with China[8] - The interplay between tariff policies and capital outflows from the U.S. may create significant economic feedback loops, impacting future tariff decisions[7]