能源化工：MEG：关注聚酯减产的落实情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that MEG will operate in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton and suggests maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting next week, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. Supply may remain low in May - June due to device maintenance and technical transformation plans. Although some polyester manufacturers plan to cut production, the actual implementation is limited. Short - term port inventory may tighten due to fewer arrivals and high downstream pick - up volumes [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, the price of ethylene glycol trended weakly. In the first half of the week, influenced by polyester production cut news, the demand side had a downward revision expectation, and the futures market declined. In the second half, the market was in narrow consolidation, and the supply side also showed losses. The overall fundamentals had no significant changes, and weak downstream demand and high macro uncertainties led to an oscillating and回调 trend. Next week, the market will focus on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, with oil prices expected to be under pressure. On the supply side, some devices had short - term outages, and there are maintenance and technical transformation plans, so domestic production in May - June will remain low. On the demand side, although some polyester manufacturers announced production cuts, the actual implementation was limited. In terms of port inventory, short - term arrivals are few, and downstream pick - up volumes are high, so short - term spot liquidity will tighten [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The impact of large - scale device production cuts is gradually dissipating. This week, the trading volume was 1.25 million lots, and the open interest was 274,200 lots (- 17,500 lots). On May 23, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4403 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton (- 1.28%) compared to May 16. The settlement price on May 23 was 4400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton (- 1.54%) compared to May 16 [8][11][13] - Spot: The high - end domestic spot price was 4597 yuan/ton (May 19), and the low - end was 4471 yuan/ton (May 22). The average basis this week was 95.75 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 106.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets remained inverted, with a spread of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [15] 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - Device: The overall operating rate dropped to a low for the year, from 55.94% (May 13 - 19) to 55.13% (May 20 - 26). The operating rate of petroleum - based production was 58.11%, coal - based was 49.90%, and methanol - based was 62.40%. Some devices had short - term outages, restarts, or load adjustments. For example, Sanjiang Petrochemical's second - phase device had a short - term outage on May 21 and is currently recovering [19][22][24] - Production Profit: The price of thermal coal continued to decline, but due to the stop - rising and回调 of ethylene glycol spot prices this week, the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol slightly decreased [31] - Inventory: Before early June, the arrival of goods at the main ports for trade will be scarce, and the de - stocking of visible inventory is expected to accelerate. As of May 22, the MEG port inventory was 575,100 tons, a decrease of 77,700 tons (- 7.90%) compared to the previous period. The polyester production cut plan has not been strongly implemented, and port pick - up volumes have not significantly decreased [35][37][38] 4. Fundamental Analysis - International Oil Price: Multiple factors are intertwined, causing high - volatility in international oil prices [43] - Polyester Products: The cost of polyester staple fiber decreased, leading to a price decline, while the average market price of polyester chips increased. The cost support for polyester products still exists, and polyester factories are maintaining prices, causing the profit of the polyester industry chain to move downstream. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.86%. The domestic sales of grey fabrics were average, while foreign trade orders were increasing. The average weekly polyester production - sales ratio from May 19 - 23 was estimated to be 40%. The inventory of polyester filament products started to increase after reaching a low level [45][50][56]