山东下游采购价再上调，烧碱盘面底部震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Views - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive support in fundamentals, so its trend is under pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and the resumption progress of alumina production capacity [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4744 yuan/ton (-14), the East China basis is -94 yuan/ton (+4), and the South China basis is -9 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4650 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4735 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 180 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -621 yuan/ton (+37), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -516 yuan/ton (+10), and the PVC export profit is 19.8 US dollars/ton (+6.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 38.7 tons (-1.9), the social inventory is 37.8 tons (-2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 75.71% (+2.52%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.71% (-1.19%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 74.60% (+1.49%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2479 yuan/ton (+23), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 271 yuan/ton (-23) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 975.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 313.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1365.55 yuan/ton (-60.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.26 tons (-0.83), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.73 tons (-0.22), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 84.10% (+1.60%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina is 78.10% (+1.43%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.68% (-0.55%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 80.60% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There is limited new maintenance, and some previously maintained enterprises have resumed production. The operating rate of the PVC industry has increased month - on - month. With less planned maintenance in the later period and expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of PVC downstream product enterprises is at a low level in the same period. The operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films are weakly stable. The downstream market mainly makes rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The domestic demand is weak, and the export to India may be affected [3]. - Cost side: The upstream calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost support for PVC is insufficient [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are few new maintenance devices, and previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production. The overall operating rate of caustic soda has continued to rise month - on - month. With expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: The price of alumina has continued to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry has significantly recovered. The operating rate of alumina is expected to rise, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. However, non - aluminum downstream demand remains weak [3]. Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic Soda: Neutral, pay attention to the continuity of downstream replenishment and the resumption progress of alumina production capacity [4].