新能源及有色金属日报：不锈钢盘面小幅反弹，现货价格仍偏弱-20250530

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, leading some plants to consider production cuts. The price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the supply of nickel ore is tight. The market sentiment is weak, with an expected short - term downward trend and a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [3][4]. - For the stainless - steel market, the cost situation of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and the planned maintenance of some stainless - steel plants may support the market, but overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is also selling hedges at high prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel Market Analysis - Market Performance: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,640 yuan/ton and closed at 120,480 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,192 lots, and the open interest was 102,540 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, and continued to rise during the day session, closing with a mid - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous day [2][3]. - Supply and Demand Factors: In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was calm. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipments were affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and were reluctant to pay high prices for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the quota increased to 3.2 billion tons, and the domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) decreased by about $0.02. Some iron plants planned to cut production due to high costs. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,170 (- 174.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 200,142 (- 720) tons [3]. - Spot Market: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the prices of other mainstream brands also dropped. Although the nickel price rebounded during the day, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 250 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel Market Strategy - Overall Strategy: It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, the main strategy is range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Stainless - steel Market Analysis - Market Performance: On May 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,690 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,550 lots, and the open interest was 101,554 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, rose during the day session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest slightly increased compared to the previous day [4]. - Supply and Demand Factors: Some stainless - steel plants have maintenance plans in June. In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price rebounded slightly, but some steel mills and agents lowered their quotes. Cold - rolled transaction prices mostly followed the decline. The market had rigid demand, and low - priced resources had good transaction volumes. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,100 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 460 - 660 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - steel Market Strategy - Overall Strategy: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - Trading Strategies: The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].