农产品日报：纸浆大幅上涨，棉糖依旧承压-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of cotton, sugar, and pulp, and provides a neutral investment strategy for each industry. The market is affected by various factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and weather [3][6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,459 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,578 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistani import cotton demand is low. There was still a small amount of import cotton transactions. Different types of cotton had different price premiums on the July contract [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated narrowly. Although Sino - US negotiations made progress, the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US is still high, and the tariff policy is uncertain [2] - USDA adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. The supply - side weather narrative is insufficient. Domestically, the new - year cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, and the inventory is being depleted, but it is the off - season and the demand is expected to weaken [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term market sentiment supports the cotton price, but the price rebound space may be limited due to the off - season and high tariffs [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,783 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,155 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,960 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - As of May 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased to 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.3866 million tons, up 239,200 tons (7.6%) from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly sorted. The market generally believes that the 25/26 global sugar supply will shift from shortage to surplus, pressuring the raw sugar price. However, the domestic sugar market has some positive factors, but the upward space is limited by the weak external market and expected import pressure [5][6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The trend of Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows raw sugar, and attention should be paid to Brazilian production and domestic import rhythm [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton (+3.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6,200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,385 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market prices showed mixed trends. Some brands of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and other types of pulp had price changes [7] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices rose significantly. The macro - economic sentiment improved due to Sino - US negotiations, but the cost support weakened, the supply was loose, the port inventory was high, and the downstream demand was weak, especially during the off - season [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Although the macro - economic situation is favorable, the off - season and weak demand may lead to low - level fluctuations in pulp futures prices [9]