新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝盘面价格相对现货较为低估-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term variability of US tariffs causes aluminum price fluctuations, and the unpredictability of US policy disturbances should be vigilant. The social inventory is rapidly declining, and the spot premium is firm. The supply side has no negative factors, but the sustainability of consumption may change in June. As the industry profit is high, it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upwards without unexpected positive stimuli, and the risk of cost collapse should be watched [3]. - For alumina, the spot price is strong while the futures price is weak, with the futures deeply discounted to the spot. The warrant inventory has dropped to 140,000 tons and may continue to decline. Even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there will be no shortage of bauxite supply throughout the year. The industry profit has recovered significantly, and the production of previously shut - down projects is likely to resume, and the social inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound soon [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On May 29, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,310 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum futures: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,115 yuan/ton, closed at 20,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,323 lots, an increase of 34,429 lots, and the open interest was 207,900 lots, an increase of 4,339 lots [1]. - Aluminum inventory: As of May 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 511,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, a decrease of 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On May 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. 5,000 tons of alumina in Guizhou were traded at 3,350 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Alumina futures: On May 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,985 yuan/ton, closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or - 1.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 798,647 lots, a decrease of 244,681 lots, and the open interest was 352,989 lots, a decrease of 18,319 lots [2]. - Alumina warrant inventory: It has dropped to 140,000 tons and may continue to decline [3].