LI AUTO(02015) Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-05-30 02:45Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Li Auto Inc. with a target price of US131) based on a revised FY26E P/E of 17x [1][6] Core Views - Li Auto's 1Q25 net profit aligned with forecasts, and cost reduction efforts exceeded expectations, providing a foundation for FY25E earnings resilience despite a lowered full-year sales volume forecast [1][6] - The facelifted Mega model has been well-received, indicating potential for upcoming BEVs, with new orders significantly exceeding expectations [1][6] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are RMB 161,161 million, reflecting a 7% decrease from previous estimates, while net profit is projected at RMB 10,361 million, a 13% reduction [8][9] - FY25E sales volume forecast has been cut by 8% to 0.58 million units, with expectations for FY26E sales volume to rise 24% YoY to 0.72 million units [6][8] - Gross margin is expected to slightly decline to 20.3% in FY25E, with operating profit projected at RMB 8,280 million [8][10] Earnings Summary - FY23A revenue was RMB 123,851 million, with a YoY growth of 173.5%, while FY24A revenue is projected at RMB 144,460 million, showing a 16.6% growth [2][10] - Net profit for FY24A is expected to be RMB 8,032 million, down 31.4% from FY23A, but projected to recover with a 29% increase in FY25E [2][10] Cost Management - Li Auto has reduced its FY25 R&D expense guidance to RMB 11-12 billion and cut SG&A expenses forecast by 8% to RMB 12.5 billion, indicating strong cost control measures [6][8] Market Performance - Li Auto's stock has shown a 1-month increase of 16.8% and a 6-month increase of 20.3%, indicating positive market sentiment [5]