煤炭行业点评报告：煤炭供给最重要变量：疆煤受价降而减量

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply-demand-inventory fundamentals are improving, leading to a stabilization of coal prices, which is favorable for coal allocation [3] - The reduction in coal transportation from Xinjiang may benefit domestic coal prices, as the market is expected to recover with improved fundamentals [6] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In April 2025, China's raw coal production was 38.931 million tons, a decrease of 5.127 million tons (11.6% month-on-month) from March 2025. Xinjiang's coal production saw a significant decline of 23.8% month-on-month [4][8] - The average price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased from 761 to 620 yuan/ton from January to May 2025, indicating a downward trend in coal prices [4] Transportation and Economic Viability - The economic viability of transporting coal from Xinjiang has weakened due to falling prices, which may limit the supply of coal from Xinjiang to other regions [4] - Transportation costs from Xinjiang to various terminal markets were analyzed, showing that transporting coal to Lanzhou is economically viable, while routes to Chongqing and Qinhuangdao are not [18] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - Xinjiang's coal production capacity is expected to increase by over 20 million tons in 2025, with a projected total output of 570 million tons [5][21] - New coal chemical projects in Xinjiang are anticipated to drive an additional demand of approximately 367 million tons of coal, with a focus on local conversion [5][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal sector investments, highlighting stable and elastic coal stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [6][22]