如何看待美债收益率大幅上行？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since May 2025, US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds have been trending downwards, with the yield of 30-year US Treasuries rising by more than 10bp on individual trading days. The domestic bond market may also be affected by overseas sentiment. The trading focus of US Treasuries may shift from tariff disturbances back to the fundamentals. The subsequent yield of US Treasuries may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the domestic bond market may have an independent trend [2][5]. - The rise in US Treasury yields in May was mainly driven by real interest rates. The trading focus of US Treasuries may shift from tariff disturbances to the US fundamentals. The economic resilience does not support the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has been postponed again. The expected real interest rate implied in US Treasuries may not decline in the short term. The debt risk pressure and supply-demand pressure in the US may push up the real risk premium implied in US Treasuries. The real risk premium in May may be more about pricing fiscal risks rather than short-term liquidity shocks and policy uncertainties [6][19][23]. - Looking ahead, US Treasury yields lack downward momentum, and there is still significant maturity pressure behind US Treasuries to support yields at a high level. If Trump's "big and beautiful" tax reform bill is implemented, it may bring long-term pressure on US Treasury yields to rise easily and fall difficultly. Although the long-term interest rate of US Treasuries has fluctuated sharply recently, its transmission effect on the domestic bond market is generally controllable, and the independent trend of the domestic bond market will continue [6][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Trend of US and Japanese Government Bonds - Since May 2025, US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds have been trending downwards. On May 21, the yield of 30-year US Treasuries exceeded 5%, approaching the previous high in October 2023, and the yield of 10-year US Treasuries rose by 10bp to nearly 4.6%, returning to the level at the end of February. On May 23, the domestic bond market may have been affected by the weakening of overseas long-term bonds [5][10]. - After the signing of the US "reciprocal tariff" executive order, US Treasuries experienced two rounds of obvious declines, showing an "N" shape. The first stage was a rapid decline (April 4 - April 11), the second stage was a recovery period (April 12 - April 30), and the third stage was another decline (May 1 - May 21) [12][13]. Factors Driving the Rise in US Treasury Yields - In May, the rise in US Treasury yields was mainly driven by real interest rates. From May 1 to May 21, real interest rates pushed up the yield of 10-year US Treasuries by about 24bp, while inflation expectations contributed about 12bp [19]. - The trading focus of US Treasuries may shift from tariff disturbances to the US fundamentals. The economic resilience does not support the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has been postponed again. The expected real interest rate implied in US Treasuries may not decline in the short term [23]. - As the debt ceiling deadline approaches, the debt risk pressure and supply-demand pressure in the US are prominent, which may push up the real risk premium implied in US Treasuries. The real risk premium in May may be more about pricing fiscal risks rather than short-term liquidity shocks and policy uncertainties [28][30]. Review of April - In April, the main driver of the rise and fall of the long-term yield of US Treasuries was the real risk premium, which mainly reflected the compensation for policy uncertainty risks, liquidity risks, and fiscal risks [35]. - In early April, multiple factors such as the unexpected implementation of the US reciprocal tariff policy, the large-scale closing of US Treasury basis trades, and the decline in overseas bond-buying enthusiasm jointly pushed up the long-term yield of US Treasuries. The main driving factor was the real risk premium, which was mainly driven by short-term liquidity risks caused by the closing of high-leverage arbitrageurs [35]. - The Fed's statements to stabilize the market alleviated market concerns about liquidity risks, and tariff negotiation signals reduced policy uncertainty risks. From April 12 to April 30, the yield of 10-year US Treasuries declined significantly [36]. Outlook for US Treasuries and Impact on the Domestic Bond Market - Looking ahead, US Treasury yields lack downward momentum, and there is still significant maturity pressure behind US Treasuries to support yields at a high level. If Trump's "big and beautiful" tax reform bill is implemented, it may bring long-term pressure on US Treasury yields to rise easily and fall difficultly [41]. - Although the long-term interest rate of US Treasuries has fluctuated sharply recently, its transmission effect on the domestic bond market is generally controllable, and the independent trend of the domestic bond market will continue. The core logic lies in the substantial differentiation of monetary policies between China and the US and the advantages of RMB assets [45]. - It is expected that the long-term interest rate may fluctuate slightly between 1.65% - 1.7%. A dumbbell-shaped allocation structure of "increasing the allocation of certificates of deposit at the short end, and allocating at the long end when the yield is above 1.7% and at the ultra-long end when the yield is above 1.9% on dips" is recommended. Attention can also be paid to 3 - 5Y credit products, which may still have some spread compression space in the future [45].