Workflow
3-5Y信用,择券的合意区间
Changjiang Securities·2025-05-30 05:13
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current credit repair market is not over. Short - end spreads are fully compressed, while medium - and long - term spreads still have room for repair. Institutions are increasing their purchases of 3 - 5 - year varieties, and the cost - effectiveness of the duration strategy continues to improve [3]. - From late May to early June, the credit bond market will still feature mainly structural opportunities. The strategy of extending duration for high - grade bonds combines safety and return potential [7]. - Although the pressure of wealth management products returning to the balance sheet at the end of June may cause a phased impact on credit bonds, the adjustment space is limited [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Spread Compression Logic and Investment Strategy - After the synchronous reduction of deposit rates and LPR, the pressure on banks' liability costs has eased, and the allocation demand of non - bank funds continues to be released. The market is transitioning from "grabbing short - end coupons" to "exploring spread depressions" [7]. - The central shift of the capital interest rate downwards consolidates the basis for credit bond carry trades. The stable carry space makes 1 - 3 - year and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds the preferred "core positions" for institutions [7]. - Medium - term varieties have both coupon advantages and resistance to interest rate fluctuations. There is a significant differentiation in spreads between small and medium - sized bank perpetual bonds and ordinary credit bonds, with potential for spread compression [8]. - The current credit bond repair market is ongoing. Short - end spreads are close to historical lows, while 3 - 5 - year spreads have room for valuation repair. Institutions are increasingly buying 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [9]. 3.2 Yield and Spread Overview - Yield and Spread Changes: The yields and spreads of various types of bonds, including government bonds, local government bonds, and different types of credit bonds, have shown different degrees of changes compared to the previous week. For example, the yields of most credit bonds have decreased, and spreads have also changed to varying extents [20][22]. - Historical Quantiles: The historical quantiles of yields and spreads of different bonds are also presented, which helps to understand the current position of bond yields and spreads in historical data [20][22]. 3.3 Regional Yield and Spread of Urban Investment Bonds - Yield Changes: The yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces have changed compared to the previous week. For example, the yields of some provinces' bonds have decreased, while others have increased slightly [25]. - Spread Changes: The credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces have also changed. Some provinces' spreads have narrowed, while others have widened [27]. - Implied Rating Yield and Spread: The yields and spreads of different implied ratings of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in various provinces have different characteristics and changes [32][37].