KUAISHOU(01024) 光大证券·2025-05-30 05:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) with a target price of HKD 68.8, compared to the current price of HKD 54.20 [4]. Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue of RMB 32.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 4.58 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's gross margin was 54.6%, in line with expectations, while operating profit reached RMB 4.26 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [1]. - The report highlights the acceleration of AI commercialization as a potential valuation increment, particularly through the application of Kuaishou's AI capabilities across various sectors [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing revenue was RMB 18 billion, growing 8% year-on-year, driven by improved marketing material conversion efficiency from AI models [2]. - E-commerce GMV reached RMB 332.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, with active buyers growing by 7.1% to 135 million [2]. - Live streaming rewards amounted to RMB 9.8 billion, up 14.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in the number of contracted agencies and streamers [2]. Growth Drivers - The report notes that Kuaishou's AI, particularly the Keling AI, has been widely applied, generating over RMB 150 million in revenue in Q1 2025, contributing to a 15.2% increase in other revenues [2]. - Local life services revenue doubled year-on-year, with a 73% increase in monthly paying users, while overseas revenue grew by 33% to RMB 1.3 billion [2]. - User engagement metrics showed a 6% year-on-year increase in total usage time, with daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) at 410 million and 710 million, respectively [2]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly raised to RMB 20.13 billion, RMB 24.18 billion, and RMB 27.70 billion, reflecting a modest increase from previous estimates [2][3]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 142.6 billion, with a growth rate of 12.4% [3]. - The report indicates a stable fundamental outlook, with potential valuation increments driven by advancements in AI applications [2].